A new white paper from forecaster Global Insight, Is Mobility As We Know It Sustainable?, raises the possibility that the number of cars and trucks on the world’s roads could nearly quadruple to 3bn by 2035, as a result of increased prosperity in all regions of the world.
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This represents nearly four times the demand for physical space, raw materials and fuel that currently exists, and up to four times the output of toxic and climate-changing emissions, the paper said.
Author Philip Gott, Global Insight’s director of automotive consulting, also identifies actions that should be taken to mitigate the impact of this huge growth in the car and truck fleet.
While most projections have the size of the car and truck fleet growing from an estimated 800m today to 1.6bn by 2050, Gott warns that, “while the sheer numbers are staggering and consequences boggle the mind, a good case can be made for higher numbers based on expected economic growth.”
He said there is a strong historical correlation between per capita income, population and the number of cars and trucks on the road. According to current trends, by 2035 the growth in national economies will bring per capita GDP in every region of the world to above US$5,000, which is accepted as the minimum to trigger an increase in the motorisation rate.
“Smaller, lighter vehicles and existing advances in powertrain technology can help minimize the impact of more vehicles on the road by reducing CO2 and fuel consumption by about 40% and 50%, respectively,” Gott said, adding: “Clearly, non-conventional solutions are needed.”
Possible solutions examined in the white paper include: vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells; creation of energy conversions (fuel to electricity, for example) on a large scale; adoption of cogeneration principles to make the best use of all energy; minimizing the number of conversions from one energy form to another (eg conversion of electricity to hydrogen gas, then to compressed gas or liquid, and back again); and using the least energy intensive vehicle for any given task.
