Spain’s status as Europe’s third-biggest auto maker is crumbling.

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Dealers’ Federation Faconauto has released a new set of gloomier production forecasts, saying that the country’s car output will plunge 21.7% to 2.33m units by 2009 –that’s much worse than an earlier PriceWaterhouseCoopers study that predicted a 4% production decline in four years.


Producers’ lobby Anfac has already said that output will fall 10% to 2.7m units this year amid sagging European demand for Spanish-made small and midsize cars.


Faconauto, which represents 3,000 dealers in Spain, also predicted that the UK’s vehicle output will fall 11.4% to 1.6m units by the end of the period while Italy, France and Germany will see their production rise 12.9%, 2.5% and 2.8% respectively.


Spain’s fall contrasts sharply with Eastern Europe’s mighty production gains. The region is forecast to produce 4m units in 2008, up 43% from 2004, as suppliers move production to cheaper manufacturing posts there.

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Spain will see its European market share fall to 11.5% from 15.4% during the period while eastern European factories’ market share will soar to 20% from 14.5% in 2004, Faconauto said. The UK will lose 1.5% of its market share to command 8% while Italy will gain 4% to have 6.1% of the market, Faconauto said.


According to Facounauto, which culled its projections from an MSI research report, Ford, Volkswagen, DaimlerChrysler, PSA Peugeot-Citroen and Renault will curb their Iberian production the most.


Citroen will stop producing its C3 and Xsara models while Ford will move the Fiesta’s assembly outside Spain, on top of its announced Ka shift. Mazda is also expected to shift production of its 2 and Nissan its Almera Tino models in 2008 and 2006 respectively, according to Faconauto. Seat is also likely to relocate Cordoba assembly, the federation added.


Ivan Castano