Russia’s Association of European Businesses (AEB) says it expects the second half of this year to be more problematic in automotive sales terms as any fall-out from the current stand-off between Moscow and Kiev continues.

Both Russia and Ukraine are deeply divided as to the future of the autonomous province of Crimea, with the political impasse causing the Rouble to come under sharp pressure during the past few days.

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New passenger car and light commercial vehicle sales rose 4% last December after dropping 5% overall in 2013, but regional tensions may yet have an impact on performance.

“The consensus seems to be if everything goes well, then 2014 should come out level on how 2013 finished, which was not a bad level,” AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee chairman, Joerg Schreiber, told just-auto from Moscow.

“I am not sure if this belief is still there with Ukraine in play. The majority of the market would rather expect rougher times to be ahead, particularly in the second half of this year.”

The political impact of recent events which saw Ukraine’s existing President flee to Russia and what appear to be forces sympathetic to Moscow controlling Crimea, have yet to fully run their course, but Schreiber takes a pragmatic view of consumers’ ability to weather any storm.

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“Dealing with Russia, they are used to preparing for the worst and hoping for the best,” he said. “That might reflect in consumer demand or consumer mood.

“It all depends on how this Ukraine or Crimea situation will resolve [itself]. If this passes without major tension or additional conflict between East and West, then it might just pass by.

“If that continues to be a worry and certainly it is a worry for the automotive business community, then the expectation for the short term future will be muted.”

All ten of the best-selling models produced in Russia are manufactured in the country.