Sale of new vehicles in Japan are estimated to register a double-digit drop in 2011, according to an industry association.

The Japan Automobile Dealers Association is predicting that sales will fall 13% to around 2.8m vehicles. The figure excludes minivehicles.

The Japanese industry has had to deal with the end of government subsidies for eco-friendly models in September 2010.

The association believes that manufacturers will likely end the financial year on 31 March with an increase in sales thanks to the subsidies. It has warned, however, that the following year could be tough.

Vehicle production in Japan rose for the first time in three years in 2010, up 21.3% over the previous year to 9,625,940 units.

The growth was attributable to increased domestic sales due to the government’s tax breaks and subsidies for the purchase of environmentally friendly cars and increased exports to Europe, the US and emerging markets.

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However production has still not got back to the 10m plus market of a few years ago or close to the 1990 peak of 13.4m.