Global vehicle production is set for substantial growth over the rest of this decade as the auto industry continues to recover from recession, according to the analysts at LMC Automotive.
Global automobile production is forecast by IHS to increase by 21m units to 106m in 2021 (85m in 2013). It has grown by 25m units since 2009.
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IHS says that China will dominate, but there is a “considerable upside attached to the North American industry as it attracts foreign investment, and in the European industry as its domestic markets climb back”. Japanese and South Korean production will decline as local OEMs focus their efforts overseas, the research company says.
Declining vehicle demand in Russia and Turkey will limit European production growth to 1% this year, according to IHS. However, from 2015 to 2017 European output is expected to increase by 4% a year, led by the recovery of domestic demand and sustainable increase in exports, primarily to the US and China.
While it currently consumes 70% of European production, Western European demand will contribute only 50% of production growth expected by 2021. Of this share, more than a half will come from Spain and Italy as they recover from enormous losses experienced during the years of recession.
“European car makers will meet divergent demand environments, depending on which part of Europe they are more exposed to,” said Denis Schemoul, manager Europe vehicle production forecasting, IHS Automotive.
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By GlobalData“Segments are changing globally as the emerging markets tip the balance and mature markets come under pressure to downsize,” said Mark Fulthorpe, director global vehicle production forecasting at IHS Automotive.
