The diesel share of the West European car market is continuing to decline and fell to just 47.9% in September (compares with 49.3% in September of last year) according to estimates compiled by LMC Automotive.

The trend towards a shrinking share for diesel engines in the European car market comes in the wake of VW’s dieselgate scandal and the rise of small GDI engines as well as some increase in the share of the market being taken by electrified vehicles (PHEVs usually coming with gasoline engines, rather than diesel).

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LMC says that 2016 is on course to post diesel share of Western Europe’s car market below 50% for the first time in many years. To September the cumulative figure was 49.5%, bearing out this projection.

However, it also says that analysis of the annualised monthly decline shows that while the diesel market fell by 2.7 percentage points in August, the year-on-year decline in September was just 1.4 points. By this measure, September was actually the strongest month for diesel since January.

Analysis of fuel share by segment shows that since 2011, the combined A+B Segment has lost one third of its diesel content. Conversely the D, E and F Segments are largely untouched. The decline in the SUV Segment is connected to ongoing downsizing in that segment, driven by a flood of A, B and C Segment crossover vehicles which are less likely to be diesel powered than traditional large or full-size SUVs. This trend has some way to run yet, LMC says; the hatchback segment will ‘continue its migration to the crossover vehicle form’.

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LMC also says the C Segment will be the next battleground for diesel. 

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Diesel Share of New Car Sales (%)

Diesel Car Sales Volume (‘000s)