If July was excellent for car and light commercial vehicle sales at 364,200 units (up 20% year on year), August to date is promising a superlative result, according to the latest forecast from automakers’ assocation Anfavea.
Several stars have aligned to bring this about: automaker and dealer stocks were down from 29 days in June to 27 in July; August has more selling days (23) than July (21); and the previously announced ending of the excise tax (IPI) reduction due on the 31st is sure to spur sales campaigns in the style of “buy before prices rise” before the month is out.
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Forecasts definitely suggest a record month is in the offing, both for sales and production (to restore domestic inventories, export sales remain depressed).
Therefore, August is likely to see 400,000 registrations and 330,000 units assembled.
However, it is likely the government will soon announce an extention of the temporary IPI tax reduction until at least the end of October. The Brazilian government apparently fears that the fragile second half economic recovery might stall if the auto industry doesn’t continue on this rising sales and production trajectory.
Anfavea appears to think so: it has reaffirmed its forecast for this year: a 4% to 5% rise in sales and 2% more production. These numbers take into account disappointing heavy truck lorry sales – many 2012 deals were pulled forward into late 2011 due to the new, Euro 5 emission standards that toook effect on 1 January.
The 2012 forecast now is 3.8m domestic sales, 525,000 exports (- 5%) for US$15.7bn (3% less if you strip out agricultural machinery) and 3.46m vehicles produced (up 2%).
Auto industry employment may reach almost 150,000 by year’s end. In July, the tally was 147,700, up 782 over June.
Today (9 August) Toyota opened its new car manufacturing plant in Sorocaba, São Paulo state, with VIP guests including company president Akio Toyoda.
Yesterday he announced a $500m spend to build the automaker’s first engine plant in Brazil, in Porto Feliz in the same state, and due to begin operations in 2015.
Toyota said the plant would produce engines for the locally made Etios and Corolla.
“The move is aimed at furthering local production in an automobile market expected to undergo consistent growth,” it said in a statement.
The new engine plant will make 1.3-and 1.5-litre petrol engines for the Etios and 1.8- and two-litre engines for the Corolla. Planned annual capacity when output starts in the second half of 2015 is about 200,000 units.
Toyota production in Brazil dates back to 1958 with the establishment of Toyota do Brasil (TDB), which made over 100,000 Bandeirante SUVs between 1958 and 2001.
In 1998, TDB began production of the Corolla.
