According to JATO Dymanics, Brazil remained the world’s fourth largest auto market in 2014, staying ahead of Germany by a mere 67,000 units.

Yet local automakers’ trade group Anfavea has been more conservative in its market, production and export forecasts for 2015.

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After two downward revisions during 2014 and still not hitting the targets forecast, the body’s 2015 numbers may be optimistic.

It will be quite a difficult year for the Brazilian economy. The Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin, a weekly poll of about 120 banks, brokers and financial market consultancies signals zero growth and inflation above 7%.

Anfavea predicts zero growth for the domestic auto market (including imports and light and heavy commercial vehicles), exports (including agricultural machinery) up 1% and production up 4% (as new automakers set up shop and imports fall).

The body forecasts the US dollar at BRL3.10 (BRL2.58 today) by 31 December, well above Focus Bulletin’s prediction.

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Anfavea represents the entire automotive industry and was founded in 1956. Members are 22 makers of light and heavy vehicles plus six which tractors and agricultural equipment.

According to O Estado de S Paulo newspaper, the body is “campaigning” to attract new members from those building plants. BMW is about to join and Chery has just announced a move from the Motor Vehicle Association of Importers and Automakers (Abeifa is its acronym in Portuguese). 

The newspaper said Anfavea had charged new members heavily for admission (up to almost US$1m) but lowered the charge and allowed it to be paid in instalments. That lured in two new truck manufacturers: DAF and China’s Metro-Schacman.

JLR remains an Abeifa member but “migration” to Anfavea after it opens its plant in Itatiaia, Rio de Janeiro state, is likely.