Will there be one stand-out car at this year’s Geneva show? Already, many are jostling to take the title. The list includes the Mercedes A-Class, EQC and AMG GT Coupe; Audi A6; McLaren Senna; Hyundai Kona EV; Jaguar I-Pace; Volkswagen I.D. Vizzion; Volvo V60; Skoda Vision X; and let’s not forget the Corbellati Missile, claimed to be powered by an 1800PS 9.0-litre V8.
One of the odd things about Geneva 2018, at least from what the company has told us, is the lack of any potential big hitter from the Volkswagen brand, which, incidentally, saw its European market share as defined by Acea, rising to 24.6 per cent in January. That compares to a slight tumble during 2017 to 23.8 per cent. VW won’t be quiet for long though, with all manner of new models due out in 2018, including a facelifted Passat, a new Touareg and additional ones such as a Polo SUV, the T-Cross.
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The I.D. Vizzion will serve as yet another peek into what Volkswagen believes could be the future for fully electric cars, with this concept being, inevitably, self-driving. Is this big sedan a strong suggestion of how a follow-up to the Phaeton will look? We shall find out soon enough.
Another reason for VW not potentially having made any grand announcements ahead of Geneva is the desire to give other brands in the Volkswagen Group a clear run at publicity-gathering. Don’t rule out the sudden appearance of the T-Cross, though, a small SUV which VW will begin selling later this year.
The Audi A6 is probably the most important model making a world debut at the show.
The Audi A6 is probably the most important model making a world debut at the show if we factor in how vital it will be for the firm’s profits. The next A6 L which will probably appear at the Beijing show has the potential to make a serious amount of money for FAW Volkswagen. It’s needed ASAP too, the current car having fallen behind Beijing Benz’s E-Class L sedan and Brilliance BMW’s 5 Series iL in recent months.
Another model from the Volkswagen Group which we’ll see for the first time on Tuesday is the Bentley Bentayga powered by a biturbo petrol V8. Not yet confirmed but likely to be there will be another powertrain alternative: the plug-in hybrid.
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By GlobalDataStill with fast cars from VAG, albeit less expensive ones, SEAT will be showing off the first vehicle for Cupra, which shifts from a model grade to a brand. How successful it will be is anyone’s guess. A high-performance version of the SEAT Ateca is the debut model, with a Cupra Leon and a Cupra Ibiza likely to be added in due course; maybe even a Cupra Arona too.
Škoda has been playing its cards very close to its chest ahead of Geneva, with few details of the Vision X concept leaking. This SUV will lead to a production model, with many claiming that it will be around the same size as the VW T-Cross. The prototype is unusual for being powered by not only compressed natural gas but also electricity – yes, it will be a hybrid.
As yet, nothing has been announced for Lamborghini or Bugatti so there could be a surprise from one of those brands.
Groupe PSA is having a highly unusual Geneva. The D part of what it terms PCD (Peugeot/Citroën/DS) will be missing a stand, but the big news is the lack of any OV (Opel/Vauxhall) display. The company says this is due to keeping costs down and the fact that only Peugeot and Citroën have world premieres. It does seem very odd, especially when DS has everything to prove and a vital new model, the 7 Crossback. And don’t premium and aspirational brands want to attract those who wish to be associated with success? Making a statement about austerity might have the opposite effect.
Citroën is finally starting to recover from the worldwide sales plunge which took place in 2016 and 2017 due to….cost cutting and few new models….so the momentum building up with the success of the C3 and C3 Aircross is very welcome news. The Berlingo is a world debut at Geneva, as are new badging for the C4 Picasso and Grand C4 Picasso. Ditching the Picasso name seems a strange thing to do, especially when it is being replaced by the clunkier C4 SpaceTourer and Grand C4 SpaceTourer. Citroën says it makes sense to link these MPVs to the existing SpaceTourer even though that large MPV is not well known.
The facelifted C4 Cactus will be yet another debut for the double-chevron logo brand, its Airbumps having been redesigned along with the suspension system.
The C5 Aircross has at last halted the vertiginous drop in Chinese market Citroën sales.
Peugeot is also doing much better across Europe, if not yet in China, where the C5 Aircross has at last halted the vertiginous drop in Citroën sales. That was of the big stories there in 2017, along with the equally unfortunate falls for DS and Peugeot.
In Europe, the 3008 and 5008 are selling very well, which is helping Peugeot to close in on Europe’s number two brand, Ford. The Lion marque will have not only a giant statue of that animal at Geneva but a new name for the Partner Tepee’s successor. The Rifter is one of three passenger vans, the others being the Berlingo Multispace and a replacement for the Opel Combo Tour. The last of the three not only becomes the Combo Life but with this generation, there is to be a Vauxhall too. That should probably have its public debut at the London motor show, which will take place in May.
Another important Peugeot model being revealed in Geneva is the second generation 508. PSA seems to want to create an alternative for those who like the VW Arteon. And yet the 508’s size says otherwise. Not only is it smaller than the Volkswagen fastback but at 4.75m long it’s also shorter than the outgoing 508 sedan.
Engines at launch in September will be 1.6-litre petrol, 1.5-litre diesel and 2.0-litre diesel. These will be sourced from PSA’s Trémery and Douvrin plants, while the car itself is also to be built in France (Mulhouse). There should be production in China in partnership with Dongfeng Motor too. A plug-in hybrid petrol powertrain becomes available from October 2019.
Given that the ownership transfer of Opel and Vauxhall to Groupe PSA is only months old, it seems a handy coincidence that the shift of the 508’s positioning should sit well with another future model. That would be the potential big sedan that’s coming for OV at the start of 2020.
Speaking to the media in November 2017, Opel’s CEO Michael Lohscheller referred to a D segment model to be built at Rüsselsheim. Crucially, he did not say “SUV”. It is now presumed that this vehicle will be a sedan. This would make sense as Opel and Vauxhall need to lift their margins and VW proved with the CC that there is a market for a long, low four-door car above the Passat. As the Insignia is not available as a four-door, a larger, more expensive sedan could potentially be successful. Opel and Vauxhall might revive a name from their histories for this vehicle. Admiral, Monza and Diplomat have been suggested.
The fourth generation Focus might have been one of the event’s highlights but instead it is to be revealed in April.
Ford of Europe has not announced any major world debuts ahead of the show’s press days, with only the diesel version of the facelifted Edge and an updated Ka+ which gains a revised petrol engine and for the first time, the option of diesel power. The fourth generation Focus might have been one of the event’s highlights but instead it is to be revealed in April.
Renault is also holding back a major new model. Project BJA, the Clio 5, won’t be seen until the Paris show in October. Instead, Geneva’s debutantes will be a new motor for the Zoe which gives it more power rather than additional range, and a self-driving pod, the Ez-Go concept.
Fiat Chrysler won’t have any major world debuts at the show; at least none that it has flagged up to the media. There is a new variant of the Ferrari 488, which is powered by the most powerful V8 yet released by the Italian marque in one of its production cars, while Alfa Romeo has some new special edition cars and the same applies for Jeep and for Fiat too.
Where is the next generation Fiat 500 – the current car is 11 years old – and the long-promised Alfa Giulietta successor, which should be offered as a sedan and a hatchback? Aside from Ferrari, Abarth is the only make to have a world premiere and that is just a hard top for the 124 Spider. The Jeep Renegade is due a facelift but that will likely take place at the New York show at the end of this month.
In contrast to FCA, HMG continues to see its share of the European market rise due of course to its sensible policy of adding SUVs and replacing models after between five and seven years. Kia Motors Europe will show the Ceed in five-door and wagon form at Geneva. Kia has at last brought the lifecycle of the Forte into line with what had been the cee’d so that it now has one C segment/Compact model worldwide. The K3 and Cerato names will also be used in some countries, so this range is a big deal for the firm.
The Ceed goes into production at KME’s plant in Slovakia in May. It uses the same platform as the Hyundai i30. There should eventually be mild hybrid, EV and possibly PHEV versions.
Once all cars in this range are available, the line-up will consist of the K3/Forte/Cerato (sedan), Ceed/Cerato Hatch (five-door hatchback), Ceed SW (estate), ProCeed (shooting brake) and CrossCeed (crossover).
Hyundai developing one other SUV and this might revive the Veracruz or MaxCruz names.
Hyundai has a concept which it is keeping under wraps until 6 March, but we already know about two of its other world premieres. These are the Santa Fe, which adopts far more distinctive styling, and an EV version of the Kona. The Korean firm is also developing one other SUV and this might revive the Veracruz or MaxCruz names. Its main markets will be the US and South Korea, with this eight-seater expected to be shown later in 2018.
TMC also showing just how extensive the changes to the company are by revealing what will be one of its global best sellers in Switzerland rather than in Japan. Toyota Motor Europe is to show the hatchback version of the Corolla which will again be sold as the Auris in this region and certain other parts of the world. The sedan will likely appear at the New York and Beijing motor shows in a few weeks’ time. The company may also announce what it intends to do about the Avensis at Geneva. The current model will be ten years old later this year, with no direct replacement confirmed. TME is expected to exit this segment.
Another model on the Toyota stand will probably steal all the limelight and that’s a racing version of the Supra. This car has been a long time coming and it still isn’t clear when we will see the production model.
A vital model for Lexus will be seen here for the first time in the hope that it can help the brand’s regional sales. Last year, registrations were flat (-0.7%), at 44,339 units. The UX is aimed at the Audi Q2, BMW X1, Volvo XC40, Jaguar E-Pace and Mercedes-Benz GLA.
Lexus had displayed a design study for an SUV in this size class at the 2016 Paris motor show. The UX concept had only two doors but the production model naturally has the same body style as the Q2. Toyota has reportedly filed patent applications for the following variant names: UX 200, UX 250 and UX 250h.
The lack of diesel engines has been a major factor in Lexus’ less than stellar performance in the European region and that policy won’t be changing. What is just as unusual is the decision to stay away from PHEVs. The brand instead plans to concentrate on petrol engines, petrol hybrids and in higher price brackets, hydrogen fuel cell powertrains.
BMW might hold over the Z4 until the New York show but confirmed releases for the Swiss event include a concept version of the forthcoming 8 Series as well as the second generation X4, which replaces a model that is only four years old. The G20 3 Series is an outside chance of being a surprise debutante but is more likely to be revealed in Paris.
Daimler will be debuting one of the major models in terms of importance. That’s the A-Class, which is also the first vehicle for MFA 2, a re-engineered compact vehicle architecture. The first cars will be in showroooms from May.
There is nothing as yet announced for smart, but Mercedes will be showing multiple other world premieres, including the AMG GT Coupe, a facelifted C-Class, the G 63, a second facelift for the Mercedes-Maybach S-Class and the EQC. The last of these is one of the event’s most important world debuts but Daimler has been keeping very quiet about it.
The future Model Y will be the natural competitor from Tesla for the I-Pace, e-tron quattro and EQC.
Another electric SUV in the C/D segment has already been introduced to the media but the public and most journalists will see it for the first time at the show. This is the Jaguar I-Pace which Magna Steyr will start manufacturing in a few months’ time. It is sized above the E-Pace and below the F-Pace and will also be taking on the Audi e-tron quattro when that model go on sale towards the end of 2018. Jaguar has in recent days been comparing its electric SUV to the far larger and more expensive Tesla Model X. The future Model Y will be the more natural competitor for the I-Pace, e-tron quattro and EQC.
Land Rover has its debutante at Geneva: the Range Rover SV Coupé. This, according to Land Rover, is “the world’s first full-size luxury SUV coupé”. Only 999 cars will be made. A convertible will likely be announced once all units of the coupé have been sold.
Seeing a Volvo display at a European motor show can be an unusual thing but the company has an important new model to reveal at this year’s event. V432, now known to be using the V60 model name, has been developed on SPA. Among the powertrain highlights are two PHEVs. The T6 Twin Engine AWD petrol plug-in hybrid generates a combined 340hp, while the T8 Twin Engine AWD petrol plug-in hybrid that delivers 390hp. VCC is yet to specify outputs for the 2.0-litre petrol T5 or T6 engines or for the D3 and D4 diesels.
V431, the next S60, won’t be at Geneva. Instead, this sedan will be revealed at an event in South Carolina later this year. VCC’s forthcoming Berkeley County plant in that state will have an initial capacity of 100,000 units per annum. It has been confirmed that the US plant will be for SPA vehicles and that the S60 will be one of two models to be built there. The next XC90 will be the other model. This means that the S60 will be manufactured in three countries (also Sweden and China).
There will likely be a few surprises once the doors of the 2018 Geneva motor show open to the media on Tuesday. Nissan Motor Europe is the obvious major brand which is yet to say anything about a world premiere which could well mean that a new Juke is going to be an attempt to steal the show.
ACEA data for February is not yet out but in January, Nissan (39,896 -3.1%) was understandably close to being overtaken by Hyundai (39,460, +13.9%) in the European region. NME’s dealers needed a new Juke in 2016 or 2017. The situation is now especially bad in Britain, where year-to-date brand sales are down by 38 per cent following a 54 per cent plunge in February. The current car was once a big seller but it is now eight years old, having been announced at the 2010 Geneva show.
A full round-up of the debuts will be published in a second Management Briefing in the days after the event. Before then, a constantly updating list of world premieres can be found here.
Future vehicles intelligence
Additional data on vehicle lifetime and future product plans, such as code names, production plants and expected annual build, are available in PLDB from QUBE.
An overview of the 2018 Geneva motor show will be the subject of the second and final part of this management briefing. It will be published shortly after the show’s media preview days.
