The last time that the VW Golf was knocked off the top of the European best sellers table was when the new Golf IV came in too slowly to meet demand and the Fiat Punto sneaked ahead, mainly because the Italian market was
going bananas at the time. This time around it is the Punto that will be struggling to meet demand as the new model garners healthy and encouraging reviews, but that
doesn’t mean that the Golf is in the clear because suddenly the GM Opel/Vauxhall
Astra has become a real threat. Opel may have lost its position as being Europe’s top
selling marque, but it is showing that the matter isn’t entirely over and done with
yet. Whilst the Golf is showing its pedigree with sales up 9.5% to 554,700 from 506,600 in
the first nine months in Europe, Astra has boomed by 35.0% to 548,800 from 406,500 and the
scene is being set for quite a battle.

Volkswagen were stung when they lost the
top spot to Punto, but at least there was a good reason. Ferdinand Piech ruled that it was
more important to get the product right than it was to score points, and he was absolutely
right. But that was then and now the product is right and it is available, so second place
this year would be seen as defeat rather than very high sales that someone else happened
to better. The gap between the two models was 100,000 at the same point last year. As at
the end of September the gap was just 6,000 units. Opel/Vauxhall have been offering some
tempting incentives on the Astra whilst to date VW seems to have been allowing market
demand to dictate sales. But that could change over the closing months if VW decrees that
it is very important to be the one on top.

Previously Volkswagen would probably have
resisted following the incentives route, but they have already gone there with the Passat
and the Polo, so there is a good chance that Golf will be supported, especially as VW have
warned that marketing costs are beginning to hit the bottom line.

The Fiat Punto has dropped to fifth place
in the table from a very clear second place last year, but that situation will change
early in the new year. The Opel Corsa is in decline too early for comfort. Corsa is due
for replacement, but not until later next year and with the Peugeot 206 in very high
demand and the VW Polo just receiving a facelift, Corsa could easily fall another two
places at least in the top ten.

Of the forty or more marques that contend
in the European car market, only 8 have a presence in the top twenty, but only one
Japanese model (the Nissan Micra in 29th place) features in the top thirty. Volkswagen has
three top models and they are all in the top ten. Fiat, on the other hand, demonstrates
again that its problems are not just restricted to relying heavily on one market. Fiat is
the only one of the top six marques to only have one model in the top twenty.

BMW has only one with the 3 Series in 13th
place, but that can be regarded as a mark of success because neither Mercedes-Benz nor
Audi can get a model into the upper bracket. Renault, on the other hand, has four models
in the top twenty, and that is why they have been able to move above the Ford Group into
second place in the groupings table.

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Only one model in the top ten (VW Passat)
is not in either the Lower-Medium or Small Car sector. Three of the top four models in the
table are in the Lower-Medium Sector – VW Golf, Opel Astra and Ford Focus. New model
changes for those three do not occur until 2003 and 2004 and with only the Peugeot 306 of
the more notable L-M contenders due to change in the next twelve months, we do not
anticipate many upsets at the top of that sector.

In the Small Car sector, the new Punto has
just been released and should soon be chasing the Renault Clio, but again, only the Opel
Corsa will be changed in 2000. In fact, after two very hectic years on the new model
release scene, the year 2000 is not going to be all that exciting for a lot of people
because most of the activity seems to be slated to occur in the upper sectors or in the
niche sectors of the market.

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