It used to seem far fetched to suggest that more Vauxhall passenger vehicles could be sold in Britain than Fords, but it no longer does. And it might even happen as soon as next year.
We’re days away (9 July) from Opel and Vauxhall revealing details and the first official images of the vital new Corsa. It will make its public debut at the Paris Mondial in early October, and then be in dealerships across Europe from year-end. Next year sees the GM brands adding another freshly designed small car, this time the Korean-sourced replacement for the Agila – possibly to be called Viva, as a Vauxhall at least. So in the European A and B segments, Ford could be in trouble as soon as the first quarter of next year, especially in Britain.
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The Fiesta, the UK market’s clear number one, is getting old, but it won’t be replaced in 2015 as had originally been thought. Why Ford has decided that its Niehl/Cologne plant must continue building the already six-years old Fiesta for a further two or more years is a mystery. Cost savings? That can’t be it, as the consequences of Fiat choosing to let most of its cars get older and older have been plain for all rivals to see.
As the Fiesta becomes elderly, GM will by contrast have its S4500 Corsa. This will be a thorough re-engineering of the existing model, albeit with new body panels, multiple new components and fresh powertrains. Word is, the Gamma 2 architecture wouldn’t have been ready in time and delaying the next model was not an option – the current one will soon be eight years old. When will we see the first made-in-Europe Gamma 2 vehicles? Most likely when the next Adam and the Corsa after next go on sale towards the end of this decade.
The A segment might be only modestly sized in Britain but nonetheless essential for any brand aspiring to be number one. Ford continues to be reliant on Fiat, which supplies the Ka from a plant in Poland. This model, which has always been hampered by its lack of a five-door option, was first seen back in 2008. It is yet to be facelifted and probably never will be. Six months ago, Ford of Europe told the media the next Ka would be launched some time after 2015 but it won’t be built here, India being the most likely manufacturing location for this region’s model.
So disadvantages for Ford in the smallest segments, with GM’s advantage from late 2014 onwards continuing in other vehicle classes. And if you’re thinking salvation will come from the new Mondeo, S-MAX and Galaxy, hold that thought. Firstly, the European C segment needs to be looked at.
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By GlobalDataThe Focus is a great car but even class leaders eventually need replacing. The trouble is, this one won’t be until 2017. A mild facelift, due on sale from late 2014, will certainly give the car a boost for much of next year. Yet, meanwhile, the engineering of a new Astra is in its final 12 months: the car is set to enter production from Autumn 2015, Opel-Vauxhall confirmed earlier this month. If Vauxhall is clever, it might also do a fair bit of flag waving, as Ellesmere Port will be the lead plant for this model and the public mood might still be Europhobic and by inference pro-Blighty.
Ford works extremely hard to stay number one in the British market but it’s beginning to look as though it will really have its work cut out if it isn’t to slip into second place, at least in passenger vehicle sales. What can it do to counter the Vauxhall attack?
The good news for the blue oval brand is that the Mondeo is finally almost here. It will probably have an early facelift in late 2015 so as to sync with the nearly identical Fusion, which has been built and sold in North America since 2012. But the D segment isn’t what it was, with the BMW 3 Series a far more popular choice for not dissimilar money. The Insignia will still be fresh from its mid-life facelift into 2015 and don’t forget about the new Passat, on sale from the fourth quarter of 2014 after a debut at the Paris show (like the Corsa, images will be revealed to the media in early July). So the Mondeo won’t be the saviour that some would have us believe.
Other new Fords due out within the next 12 months include the next generations of the Galaxy and S-MAX. They will probably be the new class leaders for enthusiast drivers, as most Fords are but Europe-wide, their segments have been assailed by crossovers and SUVs for some years now. Ford itself will also add the E segment Edge from late 2015 (in European markets) but let’s be honest – even with four-cylinder engines to deliver a decent CO2 average, can it really make more of an impact than crossovers such as the Nissan Murano, which has failed in Europe? At these pricing levels, people want a premium brand.
Still with SUVs and crossovers, below the Edge is the Antara, which was once fairly competitive but is now too old to compete against the crisper handling Ford Kuga. But the tables will be turned in 2015 when a styled-by-Holden replacement appears. There is even some speculation to suggest it might be made in Europe – Opel stated in February 2014 that an additional model would manufactured at its Rüsselsheim plant but is yet to say what this will be. It seems more likely that this vehicle would be based on the same architecture as the Insignia, which is already built at the plant near Frankfurt.
Far more important that either the Edge or the next Antara is the Mokka, which is now the segment leader. Even better news for GM Europe is the imminent start of CKD assembly at Zaragosa, into which Opel has invested the equivalent of US$80m. The Vauxhall has been knocking on the door of a place in the top ten for some time, and last month it made it onto the best sellers’ list – the rival Ford EcoSport and UK-made Nissan Juke might be good products but it’s the little Vauxhall that is most in favour with British buyers.
Looking at registrations, May wasn’t a good month for Ford, with its sales falling by 9% to 23,459, while those for Vauxhall were up 5% to 21,961 in a market which rose by 12%. Year to date, Ford is way ahead, the number being 144,178 versus 113,305. Yet even factoring in an expected boost in Q4 from the Mondeo and facelifted Focus, it’s hard to see how Ford can maintain such a lead throughout 2015, given how much much fresher all of Vauxhall’s key products will be by the fourth quarter of 2015.
As recently as 2013, Vauxhall Motors’ former MD Duncan Aldred was lampooned by some for daring to suggest that the GM division could outsell Ford’s passenger cars within the coming two to three years. But the way the current and future vehicle cards are stacked, Ford is going to have to fight harder than ever to keep its number one position by late 2015, it would seem.
