Figures released by LMC Automotive show that the global light vehicle market was running at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) of 82.7m units in the first two months of the year.
The analysts at LMC say that February saw some cooling to global demand due to volatility in China (and the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays), meaning that the first two months’ sales taken together are a better indicator of real demand.
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The US market continued to gain ground in the early part of this year with Japan also seeing gains. However, continuing a long-running theme, LMC noted that car markets in Western Europe “remain a continuing cause for concern”.
US heading for 15.3m market this year
US light vehicle sales started 2013 strongly with a 3.7% year-on-year improvement, according to LMC. The large pickup segment was up nearly 20% in the month, over twice the overall market’s performance. The US light vehicle market is forecast to hit 15.3m units in 2013, with 2.4m units in retail sales.
China: a tale of two months
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By GlobalDataAfter reaching a record high of 23.8m units a year in January, the selling rate declined by 22% to 18.5m units a year in February due to the distortion caused by the timing of the Chinese New Year. Yet the selling rate averaged a robust 21.2m units a year during the first two months, compared with an average of 19.7m units a year in Q4 2012.
LMC’s 2013 forecast remains unchanged at 21m units, as there is “a good chance that the selling rate will moderate in the coming months”. LMC maintains that the central bank has already started to drain liquidity from the market and several major cities have tightened housing loans in the face of the renewed risk of a property bubble. Moreover, LMC points out that government measures to reduce air pollution in big cities could negatively affect the economy and vehicle sales.
Japan strong
In Japan, the selling rate continued to climb to a strong 5.2m units a year in February, mirroring the stock market rally, the weakening yen, and rising consumer and investor confidence. It remains to be seen, however, if the momentum will be sustainable, LMC warns.
In Korea, the selling rate declined for the third consecutive month in February. The end of the temporary tax incentive in December and the Lunar New Year holiday distorted sales. However, President Park’s new government plans to increase social spending, which may help boost sales this year, LMC notes.
Brazil cools after January surge
LMC says that advanced reports indicate that Brazil’s selling rate in February plunged by 30% to 2.8m units a year after registering a historical high of 4m units a year in January. The extended Carnival holiday was the main cause of such a huge decline. High household debt, rising inflation, and possible monetary tightening are among concerns for sales this year, according to LMC.
In Argentina’s volatile market, the selling rate averaged 785,000 units a year in the first two months of this year after recording a historical high of 970,000 units a year in December 2012.
LMC says that in general, the selling rate stagnated over the past year owing to rampant inflation and a weakening peso. However, consumer confidence picked up in both January and February, supporting the possibility of a recovery in sales in the coming months, LMC notes.
See also:
UK: Car sales in Western Europe down 10.6% in February
| Sales (units) | Selling rate (Units/year) | |||||||||
| Feb | Feb | Percent | Year to date | Year to date | Percent | Feb | Year to date | Year | Percent | |
| 2013 | 2012 | change | 2013 | 2012 | change | 2013 | 2013 | 2012 | change | |
| WORLD | 6,006,090 | 6,399,777 | -6.2% | 12,608,831 | 12,285,047 | 2.6% | 79,679,570 | 82,726,241 | 80,915,426 | 2.2% |
| USA | 1,190,707 | 1,147,761 | 3.7% | 2,232,689 | 2,059,693 | 8.4% | 15,341,629 | 15,295,788 | 14,471,721 | 5.7% |
| CANADA | 103,226 | 106,883 | -3.4% | 198,413 | 204,518 | -3.0% | 1,645,039 | 1,704,538 | 1,678,312 | 1.6% |
| WESTERN EUROPE | 857,172 | 965,309 | -11.2% | 1,822,290 | 2,017,981 | -9.7% | 12,580,783 | 12,414,729 | 13,098,111 | -5.2% |
| EASTERN EUROPE | 341,997 | 337,177 | 1.4% | 627,785 | 607,588 | 3.3% | 4,964,816 | 4,898,998 | 4,888,048 | 0.2% |
| JAPAN | 467,779 | 512,738 | -8.8% | 844,784 | 922,026 | -8.4% | 5,241,040 | 5,178,214 | 5,256,211 | -1.5% |
| KOREA | 107,892 | 119,668 | -9.8% | 222,752 | 223,523 | -0.3% | 1,455,575 | 1,486,371 | 1,508,375 | -1.5% |
| CHINA | 1,313,796 | 1,521,058 | -13.6% | 3,350,760 | 2,920,699 | 14.7% | 18,528,090 | 21,166,569 | 19,119,643 | 10.7% |
| BRAZIL / ARGENTINA | 267,258 | 287,352 | -7.0% | 591,134 | 565,824 | 4.5% | 3,690,942 | 4,220,365 | 4,322,071 | -2.4% |
| OTHER | 1,356,262 | 1,401,831 | -3.3% | 2,718,224 | 2,763,195 | -1.6% | 16,231,656 | 16,360,669 | 16,572,935 | -1.3% |
NB Eastern Europe includes Turkey. China data includes estimate of light vehicle imports, and excludes heavy vehicles.
Late reporting countries and estimates are included in “Other”. The percentage change in the final column compares the average selling rate in the year-to-date with the last full year.
