Could Europe’s vehicle market fall more than initial estimates?

At the start of April everyone in the industry will be keenly observing the actual light vehicle sales performance for March. The first market to report is France, courtesy of the CCFA, the French automotive manufacturers association. The numbers do not make for pretty reading.

The GlobalData COVID-19 sales model groups 21 key global markets into five cohorts, that account for the staggered spread of the virus throughout the world. For the cohort that contains the French market the central assumption is for a year-on-year (YOY) drop of 60% in sales in March. The French result, at 79,522 units is a 70% YOY fall.

If French market performance does set the pattern for the rest of Europe in March, the adjustment on our central scenario for West Europe in 2020 would see West European light vehicle sales falling 18.1% to 11.9 million compared with the current assumption of -17.3% to 12.06 million.

While there is red ink across the board for all OEMs selling into the French market in March, some manufacturers did perform better than others. Here, Porsche (-14.7% YOY), PSA’s DS (-37.5%), MINI (-50.2%), Kia (-53.1%), Toyota (-57%) and Hyundai (-57.4%) have a slither of satisfaction, although it shows the extent of the developing situation that brands losing half their volume YOY can be deemed to be performing well. 

The brands above that performed relatively well perhaps says something about the psyche of their customers. Porsche, as a high-end aspirational brand, might be benefiting as its products are often something the consumer has long ‘set their heart on’ whatever the circumstances. A similar case could be made, but to a lesser extent, for DS and Mini. Toyota, Hyundai and Kia products tend to attract an older demographic that is perhaps less concerned about the macroeconomic environment as they tend to be less economically active.

Plenty of suppositions can be made, but a truer picture will be revealed as more markets report their March sales figures.