This year has been more troubled in terms of sales than expected. Third quarter average daily registrations have risen 4% comparing to the first half but sales fell 9.1% to 2.53m units in the first nine months.
Trade lobby group Anfavea’s prediction for 2014 is 5.4% fewer sales but auto industry and consultancy analysts are betting on a fall in the region of 10%.
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Total inventories (automakers and dealers combined) meant 41 selling days last month, or 20% above the acceptable maximum.
Anfavea president Luiz Moan view does not share the more pessimistic points of view.
“We need to wait for next month but the graph now points upward, in so much September outpaced August in production and registrations. Recent credit stimuli began to work through during last month and we hope they improve in the year’s last quarter.”
Light and heavy motor vehicle production in September passed the 300,000 monthly mark for the first time this year. The ninth month’s 300,800 units was a 13.7% climb over August. By comparison to September 2013, it was off 6.7% while the nine-month tally showed a 16.8% decline – 2.38m versus 2.87m last year.
Anfavea is predicting a 10% production slump this year and this usually has a strong impact on employment.
Since January, including the agricultural machinery sector, some 10,000 industry jobs have gone (nearly all through redundancy buy-outs). The industry total was 147,700 direct jobs at 30 September compared with 157,000 on 31 January.
Exports accounted for most production losses after the Argentine market collapsed. Year to date, 262,000 vehicles have been shipped, 38.5% short of 2013’s 425,900.
Anfavea is trying to diversify foreign markets for Brazilian vehicles and hopes to reach, with the involvement of ministers in both countries, a trade agreement with Colombia by next December.
