Figures released by JD Power Automotive Forecasting show that car sales in Western Europe grew by a slender 0.4% in September.
JD Power noted that while the annualised selling rate was a little stronger than in the previous few months at 12.6m, that is a level that is ‘hardly something to celebrate’. It also warned that with the economic outlook remaining challenging, next year is expected to see volumes even lower.
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JD Power’s latest forecast for 2012 sees Western Europe’s car market contracting by a further 1.3% to 12.62m units, following a 1.4% decline in 2011. The region’s car market is still way under the 14.8m sales reached in 2007.
At a national level, September’s results continued the theme of Germany’s positive performance contrasting with weak markets elsewhere. Germany’s car market was up by 8.1% on last year and the year-to-date market was up by 10.8%. The pace of the German market may be easing a little, but of the region’s major markets, Germany is the only real success story this year, car demand there benefiting from the country’s relatively strong economy. However, JD Power says that the chance of strong growth in the German car market in 2012 is slim.
Spain’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Rate (SAAR) of sales continues to hover around the 800,000 units a year mark, which is slightly weaker than in the first half of the year and certainly does not inspire confidence that the market will make any significant recovery in the near future, JD Power said.
The Italian market again saw a weak selling rate in September, and this year is in line for a double digit percentage fall. This year, the Italian market is shaping up for its worst year since 1996, JD Power noted that with the economic headwind Italy currently faces, ‘it looks as though there will be more lean years to come’.
French car registrations were rather lacklustre, having earlier in the year been much stronger due to the spillover of 2010 scrappage incentive registrations.
In an important month for the UK market (September is one of the year’s biggest because of registration plate changes), sales were only 0.8% lower year-on-year, while year-to-date the market was down 5.0%. The result was better than expected, with the fleet market holding up rather better than the retail sector. The selling rate improved on July and August, to just under 1.9m units a year for September. Nevertheless, consumer confidence is flagging in Britain under the weight of gloomy news on the economy.
Indeed, as the eurozone financial crisis swirls with no clear resolution yet in sight, the auto industry is becoming increasingly concerned over the adverse impact that a worsening economic outlook will have on car sales in Europe.
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