Retail new-vehicle sales in the first 22 days of February were down nearly 38% year on year, according to JD Power and Associates, which has consequently revised down its total new light vehicle sales forecast for 2009 to 10.4m units from 11.4m.
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February’s new vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 580,000 units, down 34% compared to 913,000 units a year ago, with the volume adjusted for differences in the numbers of selling days for each period.
Analysing only retail sales better reflects consumer demand for new vehicles, the analyst said.
Total sales for February are forecast at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) of 9.1m units, off 39% from a year ago, but up 14% from January 2009, adjusted for selling days.
“All automakers are feeling the economic pressure and the effects of record-low consumer confidence,” said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at JD Power. “Each one of the 10 major new vehicle manufacturers suffered a retail sales decline in early February, compared with one year ago.”
Since December 2008, several industry and economic variables affecting the 2009 outlook for light-vehicle retail sales have changed notably, leading to the downward adjustment for full year sales, the company said.
“These factors include decaying GDP growth rates, rising unemployment, pressure on housing prices and continued tight credit. In addition, because the recently passed economic stimulus package does not include provisions for income checks to be sent to individual households, it is not expected to have a measurable positive impact on 2009 retail new-vehicle sales.”
“The crisis in the automotive market continues to worsen, but we believe we are nearing the bottom of this cycle,” said executive director of global forecasting, Jeff Schuster.
“Our expectation is for February or March to be the low point but a high degree of uncertainty and risk remains for the second half of 2009 if the various factors that are currently impacting automotive sales do not improve or stabilise.”
