UK-based consultancy CLEAR forecasts that commercial vehicle trailer demand in Eastern Europe will continue to shrink.
CLEAR analyst Gary Beecroft told just-auto: “In the first half of 2008 it had been hoped that the buoyant markets in the East would continue growing, or at least not shrink. However, in the five years ending in 2007, growth in the East European markets averaged 27% p.a. But in 2008 the market shrank by 10% which was a much bigger fall than in Western Europe.”
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“The Baltic countries were the worst affected, whilst Turkey, Ukraine and Belarus posted a modest amount of growth,” Beecroft added.
CLEAR says the largest markets in order of size are Russia, Poland and Turkey, with those three accounting for 57% of the region’s demand. Poland has witnessed the highest rate of growth. The markets in Russia and Poland are now as large as the biggest West European markets with the exception of Germany.
Another factor affecting these markets is that they have grown so fast, that in many cases, their trailer fleets are already approaching the size that will fully meet their transport requirements. When that happens, the current high levels of trailer demand will fall.
In 2009, every market in Eastern Europe will experience a fall in trailer demand with the average fall being 20.1%. Almost all will see a drop in trailer production. In the first two months of 2009 some markets saw sales fall by over 80%, CLEAR says.
