The IAA Mobility 2025 in Munich kept me more than busy and entertained for the three days I attended last week. I spent ample time visiting the public stands that were integrated into the city center, as well as a whole day in the more traditional exhibition setting of the Messe München. One welcome surprise is that the “Open Space” exhibition had a huge array of models on display, despite being free to attend, and was among the backdrop of the city’s most iconic historic attractions like the Residenz and City Hall Glockenspiel.
As has been the case at other events in recent years, the Europe vs China paradigm was apparent at IAA Mobility. Indeed, this rivalry was the focus of my article regarding the Paris Motor Show in 2024, with many of the points raised still holding true, albeit with some slight adjustments. Once again, a large contingent of Chinese OEMs were present, including Aito, BYD Auto (BYD and Denza), Changan (Avatr and Deepal), Chery (Jaecoo and Omoda), Dongfeng (Forthing), FAW (Hongqi), GAC Group (GAC and Aion), Leapmotor, and Xpeng. In addition, there was an increased cohort of European manufacturers, with the only notable absentees being Stellantis (excluding Opel) and Tesla.
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As an industry analyst at the show, my main purpose was to gather as much information and insight about the models and automakers as possible. While kicking tyres and speaking to brand representatives, I realized something that goes largely unreported, or at least the information is so scattered that it is hard to draw a holistic view: will the influx of Chinese models to Europe be as imminent as these shows project? This is a simple, yet fundamental, question when trying to gauge the future market penetration of Chinese brands in the region.
Asking if a model would be available in Europe at the stands of Chinese manufacturers was answered “no” or “not in its current configuration” with surprising frequency. For example, all three Aito models on display (the 5, 7 and 9) are specifically configured for the Middle East and not Europe. Changan’s Avatr brand also had three models on show that would need to be reconfigured before being sold in the region. This is not to say that these models will not come to Europe, but it is unlikely they will arrive exactly as displayed in Munich or as soon as might have been expected. This is usually a result of the homologation process that takes time and can be costly, which will slow the march of Chinese models into the region. The evolution of the BYD Seagull to the Dolphin Surf, which is a longer car that boasts improved safety, is a prominent example of this process.
Those that are for sale or have launch dates for Europe tend to be available on a specific geographic basis. For instance, Changan’s Deepal-branded Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are currently only available in Germany, while FAW’s Hongqi EHS5 model is scheduled for launch in Denmark in Q4 2025. Even Jaecoo and Omoda models from Chery Group, which boasts an emerging European assembly operation in Spain, are only available in Belgium, Spain and the UK for now. It is important to note that headlines declaring that Chinese models are entering Europe often gives the impression that they are washing over the entire continent, while glossing over a more piecemeal roll out strategy.
Indeed, the chart above illustrates a gradual increase of Chinese car sales in Pan-Europe (excluding Russia), with market penetration growing from 6% in 2025 to 11% in 2032—an obvious slowdown from the pace of the shorter 2020-25 period. There are several factors behind this slowdown: European ranges have become more competitive; at-risk segments have now been filled; and EU import tariffs are having an impact, although these have reportedly affected European brand imports more than Chinese ones. Despite this, the level of growth that is expected is still impressive.
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By GlobalDataIn summary, if the show is a predictor of anything, it is that there is more to come from Chinese OEMs; however, the onslaught of model introductions is likely to be more gradual than recent car events impress, or indeed as recent history suggests.
James Norris, Manager, Production Forecasts, GlobalData
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
