After recording steady growth in recent years, there are now signs that the Western European car market is levelling off. According to figures released by ACEA (the European car makers’ trade association based in Brussels), the cumulative figures for the first six months of 2000 show growth of 1.6% compared with the same period in 1999. The national figures do, however, show significant variation in trend.
Market slide in June is overstated
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The Western European passenger car slid 4% in June according to provisional figures released by. New passenger car registrations in June were 1,296,434 units compared with June 1999’s performance of 1,349,925.
ACEA points out that the June result has been influenced by the number of working days and that June 2000 is not strictly comparable with June 1999: Ascension day and Whit Monday were both in June this year while last Year they fell in May. As a result there were less working days in June 2000. If the market numbers are adjusted for working days, June was flat on last year.
However, ACEA points out that there were also special factors at work in relation to some countries’ June market totals:
Half-year figures show national variation

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By GlobalDataLooking at the half-year cumulative figures, increasing or stable results have been registered in most of the Western European countries with the exception of Germany, Denmark, and Portugal.
The 11 per cent decrease in Germany is explained by a number of factors. Firstly, the comparison is with high levels in 1999 and there are less new or young models hitting the market this year. There has also been a shift of demand from the new to the used cars market. Germany’s economic progress this year continues to be somewhat hesitant and economic growth is mainly driven by exports rather than by domestic consumption. By contrast, the French market continues to gain momentum in the context of improving economic growth and still-strong replacement demand. The Italian car market now looks to be weakening, although it still stands well above its historical ‘norm’.
The UK market appears to have topped out now. However, a big unanswered question for the UK market is: to what extent are consumers holding off in expectation of car price declines? Expectations are certainly high – buoyed by the Monopolies Commission report – that prices will continue to move down (they are already declining at a rate of about 8% pa in real terms).
PSA a share gainer – Ford and GM are losers
In terms of market shares, Volkswagen Group is the clear market leader in the first half (with an 18.2% share), but PSA (Peugeot-Citroen) achieved a notably strong performance in the first half (12.8% share). PSA is being helped by market geography (strong French market) as well as favourable model cycles (eg P206 and Citroen Picasso). Ford’s first half figures are weak – and hindered by late model cycles – with share slipping to 10.3% from 11.5% last year. Things will improve with the Mondeo and Fiesta replacements.
GM also emerges as a share loser in the first half – again, model cycles form a significant part of the explanation.
Western Europe: June and first half new passenger car sales by country (provisional)
(*) : Western Europe includes European Union +Iceland+ Norway + Switzerland (includes Liechtenstein)
** ACEA estimates
Western Europe: first half new passenger car sales by manafacturer (provisional)
(*) : Western Europe includes European Union + Iceland + Norway + Switzerland (includes Liechtenstein)
GM Group/Others includes IBC & GM(US)
FORD Group/Ford includes Ford(US)
FIAT Group: FIAT includes Innocenti/Others includes Ferrari & Maserati
ACEA estimates