October’s diesel share was revised down slightly (from 10.7% to 10.4%) with November delivering diesel at 10% of total passenger car demand in the Western Europe region. YoY decline in November was in line with what we’ve seen from the second quarter of this year onwards. The fastest growing propulsion segments are BEVs and FHEVs and, on balance the incentive situation for BEVs has been improving through the second half of the year. Germany will reintroduce a BEV grant from January 2026 which should help maintain the BEV momentum seen so far in 2025 (essentially this is recovery from very poor BEV sales in 2024) but this is likely to drive diesel down, as we are starting to see in Germany already. To November, diesel sales in Germany are down 100k units YoY and although diesel and BEV typically operate in different market segments, there is overlap, and so more BEV equals less diesel overall.

The recent news surrounding changes to the EU CO₂ roadmap may be seen as positive for diesel in the long run, as combustion cars are now not likely to be banned altogether from 2035. However, there will be strict guidelines as to the type of ICE vehicles that can be sold. While these rules are not yet clarified, they appear to be focussed on PHEVs, EREVs and vehicles operating on biofuels and e-fuels. Diesel isn’t a big player in those areas, so we don’t see this as a reprieve for diesel but need to see the fine print.