Cumulative 2024 EV share in the UK car market – at 18.1% - is undershooting the 22% full-year share needed to avoid hefty OEM fines under the UK’s zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate.

The UK new car market was down by 6.0% in October to 144,288 new registrations, according to data released from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

Year-on-year declines were recorded across all buyer types, with fleets falling for the second time this year, down 1.7%, and the low volume business market declining 12.8%. Private purchases continued their two-year long wane, down 11.8%, meaning fewer than four in 10 (38.8%) of new cars registered in the first ten months have gone directly to private buyers.

The October market fall was driven by double-digit drops in petrol and diesel vehicle deliveries, down 14.2% and 20.5% respectively. However, uptake of hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles also fell, down 1.6% and 3.2%. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were the only powertrain type to record growth, with a raft of new models driving the strongest growth this year, up 24.5% to reach a 20.7% share of the market.

The SMMT points out that UK new car buyers now have more than 125 different BEV models to choose from – an uplift of 38% over the last 10 months. It also said that ‘huge manufacturer discounting’ means that around one in five BEV models now has a lower purchase price than the average petrol or diesel car, especially for buyers able to take advantage of schemes such as salary sacrifice.

However, while BEV car sales in the UK have reached almost 300,000 in the first ten months, that represents 18.1% of the market – an increase on 2023, but still significantly short of the 22% target for this year and of the 28% which must be achieved in 2025 under the UK government’s zero emission vehicle mandate.

GlobalData forecasts the UK car market will grow by around 3% to 2m units in 2024. That would follow an 18% rebound in 2023 as supply constraints caused by the global semiconductors crisis eased.

In a statement on the October result, Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said: “Massive manufacturer investment in model choice and market support is helping make the UK the second largest EV market in Europe. That transition, however, must not perversely slow down the reduction of carbon emissions from road transport.

“Fleet renewal across the market remains the quickest way to decarbonise, so diminishing overall uptake is not good news for the economy, for investment or for the environment. EVs already work for many people and businesses, but to shift the entire market at the pace demanded requires significant intervention on incentives, infrastructure and regulation.”