Diesel share of new car sales in western Europe is confirmed at 14.5% for October with very little change to that figure seen in November (at a preliminary 14.4%). Diesel share has been relatively stable over the last quarter compared with the moderate but relentless decline that preceded that period.

On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, November’s share was just 1.7 percentage points below that seen a year earlier but in volume terms, November 2023 yielded a bigger diesel market by 2,800 units compared with a year earlier.

It was Germany that provided this boost, seeing an additional 8,000 sales versus November 2022. All other markets bar Austria and Italy saw sales volume decline, with the biggest drop (once again) being seen in France. Share-wise, it was only Germany that was in positive territory in November versus the year-earlier result. Increasingly it is Germany that is underpinning Europe’s diesel market, the fuel type remaining popular there by virtue of the type of driving often undertaken (high speed, long-distance) and that German premium OEMs are traditionally diesel oriented. This is waning over time, but Germany is highly critical to the region’s diesel market.

By 2029, many markets in the region will have seen diesel car sales fall to zero and all will see diesel share at sub 5% by that time. At this level, the sales will then fall quickly to negligible levels and so by 2030 we expect diesel to be largely removed as a fuel type for passenger cars in the region although it will still be significant in the LCV segment.

This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center