BMW has lowered its 2025 earnings guidance, pointing to weaker-than-expected growth in China and the impact of US import tariffs. 

The German carmaker reported year-to-date volume growth to September in Europe and the Americas, but said deliveries in China have fallen short of internal targets.  

As a result, the group has pared back its sales expectations for the Chinese market in the fourth quarter. 

BMW also cited a “significant reduction of commissions from local Chinese banks in connection with the brokering of financial and insurance products to end customers,” adding that this will necessitate financial support to bolster dealer profitability. 

The company noted that some tariff-reduction assumptions made at the half-year stage have not materialised.  

“In this context the BMW Group continues, however, to maintain the assumption that the EU implement the agreement with the US on reduction of tariffs from 10% to 0% on the import of vehicles and auto parts into the EU effective 1st August,” it said. 

Reflecting these pressures, BMW now expects its automotive EBIT margin in 2025 to remain within the previously guided 5% to 7% band, “more specifically in the range of 5% to 6%”. 

The company’s revised return on capital employed (automotive) is now projected at 8% to 10% (previously 9% to 13%). 

Group earnings before tax are expected to “decline slightly”, previously forecast to be “on same level as previous year”. 

BMW said it now assumes that “reimbursements of customs duties from the American and German authorities totalling a high three-digit million figure will not be received in 2025 but only paid in 2026”.  

Taking these reimbursements and the profit impact into account, free cash flow in the automotive segment for 2025 is expected to be above €2.5bn ($2.91bn), down from a prior expectation of above €5bn. 

The dividend payout ratio is unchanged at 30% to 40% of net income attributable to BMW AG shareholders, and the group said it “remains committed to the share buyback programme”. 

BMW plans to publish full quarterly results and the adjusted outlook on 5 November 2025 in its Quarterly Statement to 30 September 2025.