New vehicle sales in the US are continuing to run at a strong level in August according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by JD Power and LMC Automotive.
JD Power expects consumer spending on new vehicles in August will approach $36 billion, which is the highest level on record.
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“The industry as a whole continues to experience a robust improvement in demand, and our forecast for August is looking to be the best month for retail sales that we’ve seen in the past seven years,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at JD Power.
“Moreover, this strong selling environment is occurring when consumers are spending more on new vehicles than any month on record, which is a further indication of the underlying strength of the sector.”
Total light vehicle sales in August 2013 are expected to increase by 12% from August 2012 to 1,495,400.
PIN and LMC data show total sales reaching a 16m-unit SAAR in August, which is the highest since November 2007, with actual unit sales the highest since May 2007. Projections are based on sales figures for the first 15 selling days in the month.
Based on the solid outlook for August, LMC Automotive is holding its 2013 forecast for retail light vehicle sales at 12.8m units and total light vehicle sales at 15.6m units.
“The US auto recovery seems to be operating on auto pilot, a welcome stage of stability at a higher pace,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. “We do expect to see a lower selling rate in September as Labor Day is counted in August sales, but upside potential still outweighs downside risk in 2013 and well into 2014.”
North American light vehicle production year-to-date through July is up 4% from the same period in 2012. The industry continues to manage a lean supply-to-demand ratio, with vehicle stock at the beginning of August falling to an average 56-day supply from 61 days in July. The overall inventory level has dropped to 2.9m units from 3.3m units in July.
Ford holds on to one of the strongest increases in production from 2012, up 13% on boosts from the redesigned Escape and higher Explorer and F-Series volume. With Fiat-Chrysler relatively flat and General Motors off 3% year-to-date, the Detroit Three collectively are slightly below the industry year-over-year performance with a 3% increase. However, they do retain a 54% share of light-vehicle production in the region, the same level as in 2012.
Hyundai/Kia’s production growth year-to-date is the highest of the larger manufacturers, up 14 %. This comes as inventory for the group falls from a 46-day supply to 41 in August. The volume boost is coming almost exclusively from the Elantra and redesigned Santa Fe. With weaker volume in July, the European brands are down 2 % year-to-date.
LMC Automotive’s forecast for 2013 North American production is at 16m units, a 4% increase from 2012 and in line with the year-to-date performance.
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons
|
August 20131 |
July 2013 |
August 2012 |
|
|
New-Vehicle Retail Sales |
1,270,400 units (12% higher than August 2012)2 |
1,138,898 units |
1,093,675 units |
|
Total Vehicle Sales |
1,495,400 units (12% higher than August 2012) |
1,313,298 units |
1,283,599 units |
|
Retail SAAR |
13.1 million units |
13.1 million units |
12.6 million units |
|
Total SAAR |
16.0 million units |
15.8 million units |
14.5 million units |
1Figures cited for August 2013 are forecasted based on the first 15 selling days of the month.
2The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days in the month (28 days in August 2013 vs. 27 days in August 2012).
