Toyota and Ford are likely to outsell General Motors in the US market by 2015 when industry sales will finally return to levels last seen in 2000, according to IHS Global Insight.
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Chrysler is also expected to lose market share in a recovering market and by 2015 its US sales will be on par with rising star Hyundai Motor, analyst George Magliano told Reuters.
“The shift in volume from GM and Chrysler to Toyota, Ford, and other manufacturers will be massive,” he said.
Toyota overtook GM in global sales last year.
Ford, the only US automaker not to seek emergency government loans to run operations, has gained market share in recent months at the expense of GM and Chrysler and currently ranks third in US sales behind GM and Toyota.
Ford will overtake GM as the leading US automaker in its domestic market in the next several years, Magliano said.
He forecast US industry auto sales were likely to climb back to top 17.3m units by 2015 – comparable to 2000. Global Insight sees 2009 auto sales above 10m units and 2010 volume between 11 and 11.5m units.
He expects Toyota to sell about 3m vehicles in 2015 for a market share of nearly 17%, followed by Ford and GM in the 2.5 to 3m range.
Chrysler’s US sales are forecast at about 1.25m in 2015 for a market share of 7.2% – down from 11% in 2008, IHS Global Insight told Reuters.
That would peg Chrysler level with Hyundai in US sales. So far this year, the Korean firm is the only major automaker to increase US sales.
