The latest projections from Edmunds suggest that the US light vehicle market in September may hit a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) of 12.9m units, the highest monthly SAAR since April.
Edmunds’ view on the strength of the US market in September is in line with earlier estimates from JD Power.
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Edmunds says that an estimated 1,038,052 new cars will be sold in September for a projected SAAR of 12.9m light vehicles, the highest monthly SAAR since the 13.2m light vehicles reported in April. That was the last full month before supply disruptions stemming from the Japanese earthquake had a true impact on sales.
However, while September’s sales forecast is an encouraging sign for the automotive industry, the momentum likely won’t be enough to get sales back on track for the growth that was first projected at the beginning of the year. Earlier this month, Edmunds lowered its 2011 auto sales forecast from 12.9m to 12.6m vehicles.
“Some consumers who deferred purchases earlier this summer are responding to improving vehicle supply and more competitive prices, and those purchases will be reflected in September’s sales results,” said Edmunds Chief Economist Lacey Plache. “But declining economic conditions are keeping other consumers away from dealer lots and will continue to do so at least through the end of the year.”
Overall sales are expected to be up 8.3% over September 2010. Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 10.6m vehicles in September, with fleet sales accounting for 18% of all sales this month.
Edmunds forecasts that Honda will see the biggest month-over-month gains among the top six automakers.
“Honda’s momentum this month is a direct reflection of all the hard work it has put into getting its production and supply issues back to normal,” said Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds. “With more cars available to sell, Honda is finally in a position to be a lot more flexible with incentives and pricing than it has been over the last several months, and consumers are responding.”
Edmunds also says that Ford bounced back in September after it was the only major manufacturer in August that showed a decrease in month-over-month sales. Edmunds.com forecasts that Ford will sell 178,654 vehicles this month, a 2.2% gain over August. The bump in sales is expected to account for a 0.9 point gain in market share, Edmunds says.
