Automakers are expected to sell 1,163,000 light vehicles (LV) in the United States this month, according to a WardsAuto forecast, lifting the SAAR to a 54-month high of 14.6m.
The data compiler cited a “slowly improving sales climate, boosted by active incentive spending by key automakers” as a key reason for the rise.
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Wards said, at forecast sales, September 2012 would be the first month to pass the August 2009 SAAR figure reached during the US government’s ‘cash-for-clunkers’ scrappage programme since the two-month scheme ended.
The forecasts sees the September 2012 daily sales rate up 10.7% year on year to 46,514 units. Both comparison months have 25 selling days.
Meanwhile, the expected 2% drop in the DSR from August’s 47,422 (27 selling days) would make it the second-best August-to-September sales shift in the past eight years, Wards said.
The actual SAAR to the end of August rose to 14.2m units on the strength of that month’s 14.47m units, in line with a second-half sales acceleration seen by WardsAuto and other industry analysts expecting full-year light vehicle deliveries to exceed 14.3m.
“Market signs continue to be positive. Pent-up demand from the recession and a slowly improving sales environment continue to drive new-vehicle deliveries,” Wards said in an online publication.
“The unemployment rate dropped to a four-month low of 8.1% in August and, while new-job creation slipped below 100,000 for the month, credit has become more widely available in the past three months than at the start of the year, even in the sub-prime market.
“Housing starts and prices, indicators often associated with the health of the auto industry, continued to climb in August. Improving home prices, in particular, can have a strong positive influence on overall consumer confidence.”
The report said LV sales should also be helped by the industry’s larger than usual September push to move pickup trucks, spurred by General Motors’ efforts to reduce its current model truck stocks by the end of the year and competitors’ response to the GM incentives.
GM is forecast to sell 217,000 LVs for September, giving it an 18.6% share of the market and lifting its DSR 4.6% over year-ago. Ford should improve its deliveries 4.3%, grabbing a 15.5% share, while Chrysler sales are expected to rise 8.1% for an 11.8% share, the auto maker’s highest in 12 months, WardsAuto.com said.
Toyota will lead all Asian auto makers this month, accounting for 14.8% of LV sales with 173,000 units, according to the analysis, up 41.9% over its stock-strapped year-ago results.
The WardsAuto forecast predicts September’s results will bring year-to-date US LV sales to 10.84m units, up 14.3% year on year.
