Automotive data consulting firm Polk is forecasting a US light vehicle market of 11.5m units in 2010, which is a 10% gain on the 2009 market of 10.4m units (which was the lowest level in 27 years).
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An 11.5m unit market is still way below the 16-17m unit markets prior to the economic crash that hit in late 2008.
“We believe wealth accumulation and improving consumer confidence added to GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 and we see slow but steady GDP growth in 2010,” said Dave Goebel, North American forecast consultant for Polk. Polk’s forecast for Real GDP U.S. growth in 2010 is 2.9 percent.
Polk says its analysis indicates that the US economy is in a recovery. However, it also says that risks to the pace of economic growth remain.
As government stimulus programs end, consumers must have confidence to continue spending and businesses need to invest and hire, otherwise the economic recovery could slow in 2010, Polk believes.
“We are encouraged by a light vehicle industry SAAR above 10 million for three consecutive months and record low inventories at dealerships. While industry levels remain far below their normal levels, there seems to be some momentum out there,” said Goebel.
