October new vehicle retail sales are expected to decline only 6% year on year – the first single-digit decline since May 2008, according to JD Power and Associates.
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This decline marks the most significant improvement in 17 months, excluding August 2009 when year on year sales were up 13% due to the federal CARS (clunkers) incentive programme.
October new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 651,600 units, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) of 8.3m units. With fleet volume down only 4% from a year ago, total sales for October are projected to come in at 816,600 units, down 6% from October 2008.
“While year on year comparisons benefit from a low selling base in October 2008, improvements in consumer confidence and credit are propelling the return to positive sales gains relative to last year,” said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at JD Power.
“October’s selling rate is expected to come in at 10.3m units – nearly flat compared with 10.5m units one year ago – which is an encouraging sign for the industry and in line with our expectations for the rest of the year.”
While most of the retail segment mix remains relatively unchanged from September, the share of pickup trucks increased to nearly 14% from less than 12% last month, driven mainly by strong marketing programmes, incentives and stable fuel prices.
The data firm is maintaining its forecast for 2009 at 10.3m units for total sales, with retail sales projected to come in at 8.6m. The 2010 forecast remains 11.5m for total sales and 9.5m for retail sales.
