US new vehicle sales this month are expected to fall 28.9% year on year to 872,000 units, a a 9.4% decrease from September 2008, according to analysts at Edmunds.com.
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October 2008 had 27 selling days, one more than October 2007. When adjusted for this difference, sales will decreased 31.6% from October 2007, Edmunds said.
Adjusted for selling days it sees Chrysler sales off 40.4%, Ford down 37.2% and GM down 42.9%.
Among the import brands, Honda sales are seen down 20.3%, Nissan off 31.9% and Toyota down 18.7%.
“The typical Columbus Day weekend boost was almost imperceptible this year,” said top Edmunds analyst Jesse Toprak.
“Looking ahead, November is traditionally one of the worst sales months of the year, and December is usually one of the best. If the election and other variables don’t have a significant impact on auto sales through December, we are looking at an annual total of about 13.6m units.”
The combined monthly US market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates is estimated to be 45.5% in October 2008, down from 52.5% in October 2007 and down from 52.9% in September 2008.
“All of the frenzied speculation about the future of Detroit’s automakers, ranging from mergers to bankruptcies, surely adds to the consumer’s retreat from buying a car,” said Michelle Krebs, senior editor of Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com.
“That said, Toyota’s intensive marketing has had some impact, boosting the company’s US market share to over 19% for the first time ever.”
