US light vehicle sales are expected to be up 12% year on year as the federal government shutdown did not greatly impact consumer purchases.
Analysts forecast that the largest automakers in terms of US sales will have double-digit percentage sales increases, with the possible exception of General Motors, Reuters reported.
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Pickup truck sales are expected to again show double digit gains but the pace may be slower than in recent months before the usual end of year flurry of truck buying, analysts told the news agency.
On a seasonally adjusted annualised basis, October sales will be 15.4m, according to the average of 44 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. That annualised rate would up about 12% from the previous October’s new vehicle sales.
The 16-day shutdown of most of the federal government did not keep sales down, several analysts said, including Alec Gutierrez of Kelley Blue Book.
“The expectations were that car buyers would wait on the sidelines but because of pent up demand and credit availability, car sales are expected to increase 7% from last month.”
Kelly Blue Book is calling for a year on year increase in sales of 12% for the industry.
Crossover vehicles will show an increase of 26.5%, Kelley Blue Book said. Top sellers in the crossover segment of the auto industry so far this year are the Honda CR-V, Ford Escape, Chevrolet Equinox and Toyota RAV4.
Buckingham Research said Ford’s high level of incentives on the F-150 pickup trucks pressured GM’s Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickup truck sales.
FDord bumped up incentive spending 24% in October from a year ago, according to Edmunds.com, while GM raised incentives only 1.5%. Toyota’s incentive spending rose 8.5%, while Honda incentives fell 23%.
While Chrysler’s incentive spending fell 3%, it was still the industry leader in per-vehicle spending of over US$3,000, according to Edmunds.
Elaine Kwel, an analyst with Jefferies, said that lower petrol prices will help boost sales of larger vehicles which are in general more profitable for automakers. According to the AAA travel group, the average US price for regular petrol was $3.28 per gallon on Thursday, down 3% from a month ago and down 7% from a year ago.
Industry research firms Kelly Blue Book, TrueCar.com and Edmunds.com each offered estimates of October sales performances of the top automakers in U.S. sales.
Edmunds said General Motors sales rose 10%; Ford up 15.5%; Toyota up 15%; Chrysler Group up 11%; and Honda up 13%.
TrueCar.com, which was more bullish in its industry forecast of a 14% gain over last October, showed GM at a 9% increase, Ford up 19%, Toyota up 13.5%, Chrysler up 19% and Honda up 16%.
Kelly Blue Book estimated gains for the top five automakers in US sales with GM up 8%, Ford up 14%, Toyota up 16%, Chrysler up 12.5%, and Honda up 12%.
