This year marks the beginning of a new mixed-powertrain era which will see the co-existence of conventional internal combustion engines with electric vehicles, hybrid-electrics and plug-in hybrids, according to new analysis by Goldman Sachs Group.
What Goldman Sachs calls a revolution triggered by pollution concerns and carbon-dioxide caps, will have a far-reaching impact on the future shape of the global automotive industry, WardsAuto.com reported.
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The study estimates sales of HEVs and PHEVs will rise to 14m units in 2020, 13% of the global automotive market. EV sales will reach 1.7m units then, or 2% of the market.
Some 98% of vehicles sold that year still will use an internal combustion engine but fuel efficiency of those engines will have to improve with Goldman Sachs suggesting that a 30% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible.
But while doing that, carmakers will also have to prepare themselves fully for the mixed-powertrain era if they want to survive.
Goldman Sachs suggests that the formation of multi-company alliances to share the risks and rewards of HEV, PHEV and EV development are likely to accelerate, noting that in the last five years, there have been more than a dozen tie-ups of one kind or another between global automakers and with suppliers.
The study’s authors expect caps on CO2 emissions to be lowered further in three major markets. The informal goal for 2020 is 167g/km in the US (currently 198g/km) and 140 g/km in Japan (181g/km).The European target for that year of 95g/km, compared with 140g/km currently, looks very hard to achieve, the report says.
The report expects the proportion of eco-friendly vehicles to surge in the run-up to 2020, reaching 45% in Japan, 38% in the US and 20% in Western Europe. A 12% penetration is predicted for China, emphasising the need for automakers to have a hybrid and electric vehicle sales strategy for emerging markets.
