A joint JD Power/GlobalData forecast for the US light vehicle market estimates that it will reach 1.49m units in May, flat from May 2024. May 2025 has 27 selling days, one more than May 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 3.4% from 2024.
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The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new vehicle sales is expected to be 15.6m units, down 0.1 million units from May 2024.
Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at JD Power said: “Following the surge in vehicle purchases in March and April, driven by the fear of tariff-related price increases, May sales reflect a more tempered market. While many May sales were made by shoppers who accelerated their purchases, the sales benefit is being muted by the payback from shoppers who purchased in March and April instead of May.
“In March and April, approximately 149,000 extra vehicles were sold simply due to buyers re-timing their purchases on the expectation of significant future price increases. These re-timed sales will present a headwind to the industry sales pace for the balance of this year. Despite this effect, retail demand for new vehicles remains robust, with retail sales expected to increase 1.1% over a year ago.”
However, King also said the threat of higher vehicle prices has “yet to materialize in a meaningful way”.
“Most manufacturers have made explicit commitments to maintain stable vehicle prices for the near-term,” he points out. “The consumer rush to showrooms in March and April did drive prices slightly higher, but the return to a more typical sales pace in May has led to a stabilization of average prices. The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in May is expected to reach $45,462, up $649 or 1.4% from May 2024, but down $592 or 1.3% from April.”
See also: US light vehicle sales: Rush to buy vehicles pre-tariffs continues in April, but outlook uncertain – GlobalData
