While US November new vehicle retail sales are expected to decline slightly compared with one year ago, total US vehicle sales are projected to increase marginally, according to JD Power.
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November new vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 547,800 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) of 8.2 million units. Total sales for November are projected to come in at 687,800 units, up 0.4 percent from November 2008, with fleet volume expected to increase by 3.5 percent from one year ago.
“The expected November selling rate of 10.2 million units is higher compared with one year ago, driven by a stable retail environment and higher fleet volume,” said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at JD Power.
“On a selling day-adjusted basis, total sales are forecasted to be up slightly compared with last year—further signalling an industry on the mend.”
In November, vehicles in the crossover utility vehicle (CUV) segment are expected to account for one-fourth of all retail sales—the highest level since the segment emerged in 1995. The share of trucks within the retail segment mix has increased to 51 percent in November, up from an 18-month low of 43 percent in August, despite the recent attention surrounding small cars.
“As expected, the recovery has been slow, but is progressing,” said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at JD Power.
“The industry is exhibiting a higher level of discipline, as there is a favourable sales ratio of 2010 models to 2009 models and a diminished risk of excess inventory. As a result, transaction prices are at their highest levels in years, indicating a healthier close for the fourth quarter.”
JD Power is adjusting its forecast for 2009 slightly, maintaining total sales at 10.3m units but decreasing retail sales to 8.5m from 8.6m units. The 2010 forecast remains at 11.5m units for total sales and 9.5m units for retail sales.
Meanwhile, Edmunds is close to JD Power and forecasting a November SAAR of 10.3m while GM’s Executive Director of Market Analysis Mike DiGiovanni is on a more bullish 10.8m units. He also said GM could see its fourth straight month of market share gains in November.
