The relentless blast of winter weather in the US [especially the midwest and north east and, this week, the deep south – ed] likely kept car shoppers away from dealerships in January, Edmunds.com said, forecasting 1,036,533 new cars and trucks will be sold this month for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.6m. The projected sales would be down 23.6% compared with December 2013, and 0.6% year on year.
“January’s weather complications mean that sales will likely be made up in February,” Edmunds’ analysts concluded. “Fortunately, car shoppers will find a friendly buying environment to make their big purchases.”
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“Even though 2013 year end sales events have long passed, market conditions remain quite favourable for buyers,” said chief economist Lacey Plache.
“In particular, interest rates, monthly lease payments, and trade-in values are all at some of the best levels expected for the foreseeable future.”
Plache cautioned, however, that those strong buying conditions are bound to weaken. Auto loan rates, for example, are likely to rise in the near future, and trade-in values will likely soften as used car inventories grow.
Edmunds.com estimated retail SAAR would come in at 12.9m vehicles in January, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.3% of total sales. An estimated 2.89m million used cars would be sold in January, for a SAAR of 35.3m (compared to 2.41m – or a SAAR of 35.2m – used car sales in December).
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
|
Sales Volume |
Jan-14 Forecast |
Jan-13 |
Dec-13 |
Change from Jan 2013* |
Change from Dec 2013* |
|
GM |
176,541 |
194,699 |
230,157 |
-9.3% |
-23.3% |
|
Ford |
155,819 |
165,863 |
216,592 |
-6.1% |
-28.1% |
|
Toyota |
151,195 |
157,725 |
190,843 |
-4.1% |
-20.8% |
|
Chrysler Group |
128,322 |
117,731 |
161,007 |
9.0% |
-20.3% |
|
Honda |
98,066 |
93,626 |
135,255 |
4.7% |
-27.5% |
|
Nissan |
88,070 |
80,919 |
109,758 |
8.8% |
-19.8% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
82,182 |
80,015 |
96,636 |
2.7% |
-15.0% |
|
VW/Audi |
37,620 |
39,074 |
51,028 |
-3.7% |
-26.3% |
|
Industry |
1,036,533 |
1,042,530 |
1,356,984 |
-0.6% |
-23.6% |
*NOTE: January 2014 had 25 selling days, January 2013 had 25 and December 2013 had 25.
All data from Edmunds.com
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
|
Market Share |
Jan-14 Forecast |
Jan-13 |
Dec-13 |
Change from |
Change from December 2013 |
|
GM |
17.0% |
18.7% |
17.0% |
-1.6% |
0.1% |
|
Ford |
15.0% |
15.9% |
16.0% |
-0.9% |
-0.9% |
|
Toyota |
14.6% |
15.1% |
14.1% |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
|
Chrysler Group |
12.4% |
11.3% |
11.9% |
1.1% |
0.5% |
|
Honda |
9.5% |
9.0% |
10.0% |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
Nissan |
8.5% |
7.8% |
8.1% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
7.9% |
7.7% |
7.1% |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
VW/Audi |
3.6% |
3.7% |
3.8% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
