Final-week forecasts from Edmunds.com and Kelley Blue Book (KBB) suggest September 2014 light vehicle sales in the US will be down around 20% from August but up about 11% year on year to around 1.3m (SAAR: 16.5m).
Edmunds forecast 1,261,380 new cars and trucks would be sold in the US in September for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 16.5m. The projected sales would be a 20.3% decrease from August 2014, but an 11% increase from September 2013.
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“September sales are consistent with the strength we’ve seen most of this year,” said senior analyst Jessica Caldwell.
“But the topline sales aren’t as interesting as the ways in which shoppers have driven those sales. Buyers have been able to secure low financing deals and have responded to lease offers in record numbers. These are behaviors that bode well for the continued strength of new car sales.”
Edmunds data:
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
|
Sales Volume |
Sep-14 Forecast |
Sep-13 |
Aug-14 |
Change from Sep 2013* |
Change from Aug 2014* |
|
GM |
228,801 |
187,195 |
272,423 |
22.2% |
-16.0% |
|
Ford |
177,310 |
184,452 |
221,273 |
-3.9% |
-19.9% |
|
Toyota |
175,776 |
164,457 |
246,100 |
6.9% |
-28.6% |
|
Chrysler Group |
165,004 |
143,017 |
198,379 |
15.4% |
-16.8% |
|
Honda |
128,895 |
105,563 |
167,038 |
22.1% |
-22.8% |
|
Nissan |
101,260 |
86,868 |
134,388 |
16.6% |
-24.7% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
99,919 |
93,105 |
124,670 |
7.3% |
-19.9% |
|
VW/Audi |
45,332 |
44,985 |
52,282 |
0.8% |
-13.3% |
|
Industry |
1,261,380 |
1,136,214 |
1,582,600 |
11.0% |
-20.3% |
*NOTE: September 2014 had 24 selling days, September 2013 had 23 and August 2014 had 27.
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
|
Market Share |
Sep-14 Forecast |
Sep-13 |
Aug-14 |
Change from |
Change from August 2014 |
|
GM |
18.1% |
16.5% |
17.2% |
1.7% |
0.9% |
|
Ford |
14.1% |
16.2% |
14.0% |
-2.2% |
0.1% |
|
Toyota |
13.9% |
14.5% |
15.6% |
-0.5% |
-1.6% |
|
Chrysler Group |
13.1% |
12.6% |
12.5% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
Honda |
10.2% |
9.3% |
10.6% |
0.9% |
-0.3% |
|
Nissan |
8.0% |
7.6% |
8.5% |
0.4% |
-0.5% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
7.9% |
8.2% |
7.9% |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
|
VW/Audi |
3.6% |
4.0% |
3.3% |
-0.4% |
0.3% |
KBB expects September new vehicle sales to increase 9.1% year on year to 1.24m units, resulting in SAAR of 16.4m. “Based on the robust sales pace during the past few months”, KBB has hiked its sales 2014 forecast from 16.3m to 16.4m.
“Following an extraordinarily strong month of sales in August, with the industry above 17m SAAR for the first time in eight years, Kelley Blue Book expects sales to level out in September,” said senior analyst Alec Gutierrez.
“Sales will remain strong and show healthy year over year improvement. Rising incentive spend in recent months has been more than offset by increasing retail transaction prices, signaling continued consumer demand.”
KBB expects Chrysler Group to boost volume 17% in September for its seventh month of double digit growth this year. The automaker is benefiting from its Jeep and RAM brands, which have pushed their market share up by a full point this year, to its highest point since 2007.
With the benefit of an extra selling day, big gains are expected for many manufacturers in September. One exception could be Ford, which may see a decline in F-Series sales as it manages current stock in preparation for the new 2015 model launch.
Compact utility volume is expected to increase 19%. This year, the segment has passed the full size pickup truck segment to become the third most popular segment in the industry, trailing mid-size and compact cars.
“Similar to previous months, growth in the compact utility segment has come at the expense of mid-size and compact cars,” said Gutierrez.
KBB data:
|
|
Sales Volume 1 |
Market Share |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Segment |
Sep-14 |
Sep-13 |
YOY % |
Sep-14 |
Sep-13 |
YOY % |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Mid-Size Car |
180,000 |
166,894 |
7.9% |
14.5% |
14.7% |
-0.2% |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Compact Car |
175,000 |
165,107 |
6.0% |
14.1% |
14.5% |
-0.4% |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Compact SUV/Crossover |
157,000 |
131,814 |
19.1% |
12.7% |
11.6% |
1.1% |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Full-Size Pickup Truck |
152,000 |
145,449 |
4.5% |
12.3% |
12.8% |
-0.5% |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Entry-level Luxury Car |
63,000 |
61,703 |
2.1% |
5.1% |
5.4% |
-0.3% |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Total 2 |
1,240,000 |
1,136,240 |
9.1% |
– |
– |
– |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights |
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2 Includes segments not shown
|
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