A new study from Frost & Sullivan predicts that the proportion of cars sold in Europe with petrol engines will fall from 53% in 2004 to 37.1% by 2015.
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But the report adds that petrol engines do have advantages over diesel.
“To date, it has been cheaper for most automakers to increase sales of diesel engines than to offer more fuel-efficient gasoline engines,” said Frost & Sullivan research manager Veerender Kaul.
“However, if diesel engines become more expensive due to emissions equipment, as diesel engines emit less carbon dioxide, and greenhouse gas, gasoline engines may become more competitive, especially in smaller vehicles, as they are less able to take the incremental costs of advanced diesels.”
Diesel engines for light vehicles have a more acceptable market in Europe. Reasons could be greater display of fuel economy of diesel engines versus petrol engines, and the fact that tax policies keeps diesel price cheaper than petrol in most European countries, says the report. The head start that diesel engines have is limiting interest in hybrids. However, advanced technologies should help petrol engines meet the challenge of diesel engines in Europe.
At present, vehicle manufacturers face trade-offs in their choices of technology, as they have several contradictory factors to consider, according to Frost & Sullivan. The aim is to minimise costs and maximise reliability, as well as satisfy the customer’s performance expectations. However, technologies that reduce emissions lead to increased fuel consumption and also add to the complexity and weight of engines, which could often harm performance. Therefore, vehicle makers are trying to evaluate the most effective and market-attractive technologies in terms of their benefit/cost trade-offs.
Despite the ability of diesels engines to lower CO2 emissions, advanced petrol engine technologies have the advantage, as they are rated to be cleaner than diesel engines in terms of other undesired emissions, such as NOx and particulate matter. Euro V regulations that are likely to come into force by 2009, may cloud the outlook for diesels if stringent limits are imposed on particulate matter and NOx emissions.
European automakers BMW and Mercedes-Benz have been at the forefront of implementing petrol engine technologies in Europe. Japanese automakers – Honda, Toyota and Nissan to a lesser extent – have also been aggressive in incorporating advanced technologies in production engines.
With some exceptions, the Chrysler group, Ford and General Motors have largely been slow in adopting the most advanced engine technologies, according to the report’s authors. Other, lower-volume vehicle makers have generally positioned themselves as followers rather than leaders.
