For all the current gloom over deteriorating economic prospects in Europe, light vehicle production next year could be heading above pre-crisis levels according to an industry analyst.
Speaking at an SMMT webinar, consultant Ian Henry said that he expects 19.16m cars and LCVs to be made in Europe this year, some 5% ahead of the 2010 total.
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He forecasts a further gain in 2012 that will be sufficient to take the European light vehicle production total over 21m units and above 2007’s (pre-economic crisis) level.
“There is robust demand from China, Russia, Brazil and other emerging markets that shows no sign of slowing,” he said.
“Assuming no global economic collapse, the real recovery in production will be seen from 2013, driven by major new model programmes and rising demand from Russia,” he added.
He also maintains that European production growth to 2016 – when the total will be nudging 25m units a year – will feature increasing sales of small cars, EVs and hybrids.
SMMT economist Robert Baker also told the webinar that the UK is well positioned for future automotive output growth, pointing out that over 80% of the UK’s vehicle production is currently exported, a figure that has been rising.
Vehicle production in Britain in 2012 is forecast at 1.7m units, rising to 1.9m by 2015.
“It could rise over 2m units a year in the second half of this decade,” added Ian Henry. “Much depends on the success of new models being introduced by Jaguar Land Rover and Nissan.”
Henry’s projections show Germany remaining as Europe’s vehicle production hub to 2016 with around 6m-7m vehicles produced a year, but with its share of the total declining. Russia, meanwhile, sees its production of international brand vehicles grow from 375,000 units in 2010 to almost 2.25m by 2016, or from 2% to 8.6% share of global vehicle production.
