Some 28% of annual global personal vehicle sales will be powered by diesel engines in the year 2015 according to a recently completed study. The study also forecasts that global diesel light vehicle sales will rise from 12.5 million units annually in 2003 to 27 million by 2015 with 60% of this growth coming from outside of Europe.
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The study, ‘Global Markets for Diesel Powered Light Vehicles to 2015’, published by automotive forecaster JD Power-LMC predicts that in addition to continued growth in Eastern Europe and South America, diesel will acquire a significant foothold in the massive North American market, with penetration rates expected to be as high as 16% of car and light truck sales by 2015.
Asian growth will be driven by strong demand for diesel cars in India and South Korea, the study says. In the longer term, the report envisages the Japanese and Chinese car markets opening up to diesel, but in a far less spectacular way.
The study examines the economic factors that determine buyers’ decisions to opt for diesel engines. Since the technical characteristics of diesel engines – greater torque, greater fuel-efficiency, greater weight – are the same in all countries (though changing through time), the study concludes that it is the local regulatory and fiscal environment that plays a major role in influencing different diesel penetration rates across countries.
For more details on the study, Global Markets for Diesel Powered Light Vehicles to 2015, contact Alistair Bedwell or Charles Young at LMC Automotive Services on +44 1865 791737 or fax LMC on +44 1865 791739 – email: auto@lmc.co.uk
