Parts of the Russian market are disposing of their income through the purchase of goods in order to preserve financial value as the rouble comes under increasing pressure.
As well as providing an automotive spike – November’s sales figures down 1% were a vast improvement on consecutive heavy monthly falls – the phenomenon is spreading to other sectors with the rouble depreciating against a background of political and economic uncertainty.
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The Russian government’s scrappage scheme – now extended to next year – is equally providing a boost to auto purchases – but consumers are warily eyeing the power of their roubles as the currency comes under sustained pressure.
“Some part of the improvement is related to the scrappage scheme,” a reliable source in Russia told just-auto. “[With] the decrease of the rouble rate, lots of people decide to buy a car now because they are aware soon, car manufacturers might increase their prices.
“Parts of the population buy a car now because this is a normal reaction. I know people who are in construction and there you can see some similar…people try to conserve the value of their money by getting rid of this money.”
While Western sanctions against Moscow in retaliation for the country’s annexation of Crimea and its supposed involvement in Ukraine, do not directly appear to be affecting Russian consumers, the economic mood music remains negative.
“The general atmosphere is not good,” said the Russian source. “Those sectors – and especially the car sector that are subject mostly to consumer demand – they are not directly linked to sanctions but certainly they might be part of the thought of the Russian consumer.
“Perhaps it is better now to buy something because times might get more difficult with regard to the trade relationship. Scrappage has come and and it is [be] coming more sustainable.
“What could be better is certainly the supply of consumer credit. It depends on the Central Bank. Consumer credit with regard to cars has shrunk in volume. Increasing inflation, which we see now and most probably increase [ed] interest rates will not make it more affordable.”
The source noted growth – currently at around zero – could slip into negative territory as the international community vents its disapproval of Russia and as crucially the oil price continues its dramatic tumble.
