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LED technology will power 20% of light vehicle front headlights by 2030, from just 2% in 2015, according to the latest headlight fitment forecasts by just-auto’s research unit, QUBE.
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The LED headlamp sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.6%, leading the technology to pass BiXenon in the market after 2020. The key drivers cited for the increasing use of LEDs in front lighting, largely at the expense of Xenon, is their falling cost relative to Xenon and improving performance and reliability.
Regionally, as has been the case with Xenon, Europe and Japan are set to lead the way in increasing the take-up of LEDs in front lighting applications. For 2015, it’s estimated that LED penetration in Europe stood at just over 4% and will increase to 36% by 2030, while in Japan the penetration rate will be 6% and 45% respectively.
Further growth is expected to come from laser lighting, which, according to just-auto’s analysts, is expected to become the next major technological leap for lighting. With five times the illumination of LEDs, and power consumption said to be half that of LEDs, the only potential block on laser lighting growth is that they are yet to be approved by the US regulatory authorities.
Currently, BMW, with the i8 and the new 7 Series, offer laser as a main headlight technology in series production while Audi offers the technology, again from Osram, in their limited edition R8 LMX.
While LED and laser lights for light vehicles are garnering plenty of attention, the latest data published by just-auto’s QUBE automotive research portal shows that more traditional halogen front headlight bulbs will continue to dominate OE fitment globally.
With a fitment rate of over 80% in 2015, accounting for over 73m front headlight sets, halogen is way out in front as the technology solution for the global
industry at the moment. While fitment will decline to about 74% by 2030, volume will increase by nearly 31% to 95.5m headlight sets due to continued total industry volume (TIV) growth.
The performance of halogen, while losing market share, translates to a CAGR for the 2015-2030 period of a narrow 1.8%, below the TIV CAGR of 2.6% for the same period.
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