The Japanese automakers’ trade association JAMA is forecasting that domestic vehicle sales will rebound in 2012 following the natural disasters that contributed to a 15% market contraction in 2011.
JAMA forecasts that the total market for vehicles in Japan in 2012 will be 5m units – 19% up on the 4.2m recorded in 2011 (when the market was hit by widespread production disruption due to natural disasters).
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Sales of passenger vehicles are expected to increase 21.7% to 4,291,000 units, while those of trucks and buses are estimated to rise 5.5% and 17.4%, respectively, to 712,000 units and 12,500 units.
In 2011, domestic sales of new vehicles, including minivehicles, fell 15.1% from the previous year to 4,210,220 vehicles, dropping to the lowest level in 34 years. The March 11 earthquake and tsunami caused serious disruption to automotive production and dampened demand. There were further parts shortages and production disruption following the floods in Thailand which hurt Japanese OEMs in particular. However, the market picked up in the final quarter of 2011 as supply problems eased.
Analysts say that car sales momentum at the end of last year is likely to carry over into 2012 following a government extension of tax incentives for purchases of fuel-efficient cars and a new scheme to subsidise the purchase of clean vehicles. Registrations for subsidies are said to be strong so far this month.
However, analysts also caution that the outlook for the Japanese economy remains weak and that any further deterioration to economic prospects would hit vehicle demand.
