The diesel’s dazzling growth will start to fizzle in the next decade.
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Automotive News Europe reports diesel-powered cars will account for as much as 65% of European new-car sales by 2010, but fall below 40% after 2015 because meeting tougher emission rules will increase manufacturing costs sharply, making the diesel less attractive to car makers – and ultimately, car buyers.
The person who has predicted the rise and fall of diesel is Rinaldo Rinolfi, director of the engine division at Fiat Research Centre – the man many consider the father of the common-rail diesel.
Others agreed, including General Motors. With Magneti Marelli and another Fiat Group research centre, Elasis, Rinolfi’s team developed the high-pressure fuel-injection technology that improved diesel performance dramatically and sparked its recent surge of popularity.
Diesels held 24.8% of western European new-car sales in 1998, the year the common-rail diesel was introduced. Last year, diesel cars took 48.3% of sales and are expected to account for half the market this year.
But to meet the European Union’s Euro 5 emissions rules expected to take effect by 2010 – especially greater curbs on nitrogen oxide (NOx) – diesels will need more costly equipment, Rinolfi said. The industry expects Euro 5 to halve NOx limits to 0.25 grams per kilometre.
“Tougher emissions standards will substantially increase the cost penalty the diesel already has versus a comparable petrol engine,” he said.
By Rinolfi’s calculations, diesels cost manufacturers 50% more to produce than petrol engines with similar performance. By 2010 diesels will need particulate filters and enhanced engine controls to meet Euro 5 standards, adding up to €500 to manufacturing cost, he said.
If the EU sets a 2015 Euro 6 standard – which the industry expects – Rinolfi believes diesels will add another €300 to €400 in manufacturing costs to qualify, effectively making diesels twice as expensive as petrol engines.
“That’s what I fear is going to take the diesel under 40% of the European market after 2015,” he said.
