China and India will become the first and third largest markets for motor vehicles by 2030.
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The emergence of motorisation in the countries is set to give the global motor vehicle industry a second wind, according to a newly released white paper by research group Keystone India.
‘The World’s Top Auto Markets by 2030’ projects that over the next quarter of a century, emerging markets will replace the mature markets of America, Europe and Japan as the primary drivers of sales growth.
The white paper predicts China and India will account for 69% of industry sales and 87% of vehicle registrations within a quarter of a century.
According to the report, “over the next 25 years, more motor vehicles will be sold than in the entire history of the industry.”
Using recent data on demographic and economic trends amongst the world’s largest and fastest growing motor vehicle markets, Keystone has projected the world’s top 15 markets for motor vehicles from 2005 to 2030.
They found emerging markets’ share of motor vehicle sales should rise from 26% in 2005 to 69% by 2030.
Declining populations and current high ownership rates are expected to cause vehicle sales to decline in developed countries like South Korea, Germany, Italy, Japan and Spain over the next quarter century.
Keystone’s chief economist William Wilson said: “With a projected population increase of 70m, vehicle sales in the United States are projected to rise from 16.9m in 2004 to 23.2m by 2030, dropping it from first to second place.”
The research group predicts China and India will dominate this transition, as their combined shares of motor vehicle registrations will rise seven-fold from 5.3% to 37% by 2030.
In 2017, China is projected to become the world largest market for motor vehicle sales, surpassing the US and annual sales could reach 62m – almost three times the size of projected US sales.
While getting a late start, India’s vehicle market is projected to come on strong, surpassing Japan within a decade, placing it third in sales.
This will be fuelled by rapid growth in population and per capita income, with India’s market almost matching the US in size by 2030, according to Keystone.
