GlobalData has cut its 2025 global light vehicle (LV) production forecast by 300,000 units, which now stands at 92.3 million (+2.4% YoY) for the year.
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The data intelligence company says a more cautious demand-led outlook for both European and North American LV production underpin its lates forecast change.
In its latest automotive industry forecast round, GlobalData says that recent US tariff announcements place sizeable downside risks (quantified at over 500k units of production) to the North American 2025 LV production forecast.
GlobalData analyst Justin Cox told Just Auto that the current base 2025 forecast for North America LV production (15.5 million; +0.7% YoY) does not assume the implementation of lasting tariffs. “Downside risks from the impacts of a more entrenched protectionist policy are elevated in the region,” he said.
In Europe, GlobalData says slower than expected demand helped push Pan-European LV production in December 2024 down by over 5% YoY. “The full-year fell to 17.45 million (-3.0% YoY), marginally weaker than our earlier estimate,” Cox said.
For 2025, GlobalData has cut the European LV production outlook by over 70k to 17.6 million units (+0.9% YoY) with the bulk of this downgrade associated with a weaker demand environment.
“New model launches will support activity but vehicle pricing, again, will remain a key risk to volumes,” maintains Cox. “US tariffs and the challenge faced by OEMs to meet more strict European vehicle emission targets could undermine improvements in affordability and, with it, demand-led LV output.”
For the full-year, GlobalData’s 2025 China LV production forecast remains unchanged at 31.4 million units (+3.5% YoY). However, it said ‘uncertainty in the global trading environment is growing and provides further downside risks to LV output in China as well as the key export hubs of Korea and Japan’.
