Data released today by the European vehicle makers' association ACEA shows that the European Union's new car market grew by 8.7% in October.

However, much of October's growth reflects changes to the EU's vehicle emissions testing rules that distorted the market last year, so there's a base effect on the annual comparison.

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Analysts say the real picture is of new car demand in Europe hitting a ceiling this year, market growth flat on 2018's level.

ACEA's data shows that the EU passenger car market grew by 8.7% to reach 1,177,746 units registered. This marked the highest October total on record since 2009. During the same month last year, registrations fell by 7.3% after the WLTP emissions test came into effect, setting a low base of comparison for 2019. As a result, nearly all EU countries posted increases in October, with the exception of Cyprus and the United Kingdom.

Four of the five major EU markets noted strong gains, Germany (+12.7%), France (+8.7%), Italy (+6.7%) and Spain (+6.3%), while car sales contracted in the UK (-6.7%).

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From January to October, new car registrations in the EU were down 0.7% compared to the first 10 months of 2018. Although demand increased across the EU in September and October, Germany (+3.4%) remained the only major European market to record growth so far in 2019. By contrast, Spain  (-6.3%) and the United Kingdom (-2.9%) saw the strongest declines 10 months into the year, while the Italian (-0.8%) and French (-0.3%) markets have almost recovered to 2018 volumes.

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After several years of bumper new car markets in Europe, underlying demand in 2020 will be weakening and economic headwinds could send the market down – with adverse consequences for carmakers struggling to be profitable in the region.