Matthias Wissmann, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) expects the US market to grow 11% to 12.8m light vehicles in 2011, according to a copy of his speech in Detroit.
“The German automotive industry is characterised by the fact that even during the crisis years it did not make the mistake of underestimating the significance of the US market. China and its dynamic growth naturally attracted a great deal of attention, but I am pleased to note here in Detroit that the US market is still the largest vehicle market in the world – and in the light of current forecasts I expect this to remain so in this new year of 2011,” he said at the show.
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“The US market is of equal strategic importance for our companies. Independent of the short-term factors, the long-term growth indicators in the US are positive: the average age of the population is 37, which is much younger than that in Germany (44). In addition, the population growth of 1% in the United States is significantly higher than in Germany (0%).
“If we compare the years 2011 and 2009, we find that over this period the US market will increase by 23%, or 2.4m.
“However, in 2011 private consumption may be expected to grow by 2.5%. In 2010 – after two years of contraction – it already rose by 1.7%. In 2011 investments will increase by 9%. This year the USA’s gross domestic product will therefore rise by 2.6 percentage points. And that is more than in most of the EU member states in 2011.”
He said German manufacturers had boosted their share of the US light vehicle market from 5.1% in 2005 to 7.6% now.
Last year, German automakers slightly increased their share of light vehicles built at North American production sites and sold in the US to 29% of their US sales (251,300 vehicles). Another 629,400 units were assembled in European plants.
In NAFTA, German OEMs increased assembly volume by 35% to 722,000 light vehicles (435,000 units in Mexico; 287,000 in the US). The majority of them were exported; over a third were sold in the US.
The proportion of vehicles assembled in the US will continue to increase in 2011, as production commences at the new VW factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Last year the NAFTA region accounted for 12% of all foreign production by German brands.
In 2010, German manufacturers increased exports of passenger cars produced in Germany to the US by 44% to 516,000 units. Another 113,400 vehicles from other European assembly sites were also exported to the US.
The US is therefore once again the second most important export destination for the German automotive industry (after the United Kingdom but still ahead of China). In value terms, the US actually comes top of the export rankings for the German OEMs (at around EUR13bn).
“We expect that 2011 will be a good automotive year for the German manufacturers – and this also applies to the US. The conditions for further growth are in place: we are enlarging our production capacities in the US and aiming to increase our market share again this year. If we look at the volume of the US light vehicle market in 2011 of 12.8m units in relation to our market share, we can achieve sales this year reaching the 1m mark, given the right background conditions,” the VDA chief concluded.
