The Chinese automotive industry consultancy, CBU, is forecasting that production of commercial vehicles will grow 17% this year.
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Production of commercial vehicles in China reached 2,041,767 units in 2006, up 14.8% on a year earlier, according to CBU-Autostats. Sales were 2,037,444 units, up 13.9%. In 2007 CBU is forecasting output of 2.4 million units, with 300,000 units destined for export and the remainder for the domestic market.
Growth in 2006 followed a year of negative growth in 2005. Growth is expected to remain strong in 2007 this because of strong GDP growth (forecast to reach eight percent), and because of the development of an export market.
Government policies are forecast to have a neutral effect on demand. There has been a recent clampdown on overloading and Euro III standards have been introduced but their effect on the market has now largely been absorbed. Road transport volumes are continuing to grow and as the infrastructure is further improved, this is likely to have a strong long-term effect on growth.
Heavy truck sales reached 306,000 units in 2006, up 28% on a year earlier. Chinese fleet operators are moving increasingly towards heavier vehicles, as regulations on overloading of medium trucks is enforced, although there is resistance to this as overloaded medium trucks are cheaper to buy and more fuel-efficient to run. The medium and heavy truck sector is dominated by the big Chinese manufacturers.
