Several car plants in Europe and North America could face closures or sales in 2025 as automakers grapple with overcapacity and competitive pricing pressures, according to a recent report by Gartner.
The report suggests that production capacity cuts on both continents this year will be driven by pressures such as emissions targets and tariffs.
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Meanwhile, China’s dominance in electric vehicles (EVs) will grow, driven by its advantage in software and electrification.
Gartner’s VP analyst Pedro Pacheco told Reuters that closures or sales are particularly probable in high-cost countries, where political and societal pressures are compounded by increasing competition.
Pacheco said: “This is a little bit like a pressure cooker. The pressure increases, increases and… that will push the number of automakers to take more pragmatic decisions.”
The report added that Chinese brands may acquire plants to bypass trade barriers or establish new factories in lower-cost European nations and gain free-trade partners such as Morocco or Turkey.
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By GlobalDataStefan Hartung, CEO of Bosch, expressed concerns to publication Auto Motor und Sport about the potential disruptions from the 2025 European Union CO2 emission rules.
He advised that the bloc should refrain from imposing fines on companies that fail to meet targets.
French car lobby PFA chairman Luc Chatel stated that Europe’s auto industry is no longer on course to meet its 2030 and 2035 EV targets.
“The risk is that we end up reducing combustion engine vehicle sales to artificially beef up” EV sales, he told Reuters.
Despite these challenges, Gartner forecasts a 17% growth in shipments of electric buses, cars, vans, and heavy trucks in 2025.
The firm also anticipates that over half of all vehicle models offered by automakers will be EVs by 2030.
Pacheco also said that to drive the shift, traditional carmakers may acquire software architecture from newer EV manufacturers and digital firms, enhance R&D centres in tech hubs, or collaborate with tech companies to establish self-funded EV joint ventures.
