Closing both General Motors assembly plants in Oshawa, Ontario, would lead to the loss of about 30,000 jobs, an economic impact study showed.

It would also cut at least C$5bn from the province of Ontario’s gross domestic product and cost the federal and Ontario governments $1bn in lost revenue, Toronto’s Globe & Mail reported.

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The study was prepared by the Centre for Spatial Economics on behalf of Unifor, the union that represents hourly paid workers at the two factories.

The Oshawa complex has been going for over a century and the 3,600 production and skilled trades employees at the two plants are among the highestpaid workers in Canada’s manufacturing sector.

But their future is in doubt. One of the plants is scheduled to close next year and the other plant has no new vehicles allocated to replace those that are being shifted elsewhere or are going out of production – including the Chevrolet Camaro, which will be produced in Lansing, Michigan, later this year instead of Oshawa, the Toronto paper noted.

About 4,100 hourly and salaried employees at the plants and the General Motors of Canada head office would lose their jobs but an additional 25,000 to 29,000 jobs would be lost at suppliers and elsewhere in the broader economy within two years of the end of production, the study said.

GM Canada president Stephen Carlisle said in January, in what the company called a community update, that no decisions on new products will be made before late 2016 and the conclusion of negotiations on a new contract with Unifor.

The Globe & Mail said Unifor president Jerry Dias had met with GM CEO Mary Barra last month to point out that about 60% of the Oshawa production workers have hit the 30-year mark, which makes them eligible for early retirement.

That means GM could hire new workers – to replace those retiring – at hourly wages that start at $20.50 and don’t rise to the full $34.50 an hour rate for 10 years.

“GM will make money hand over fist in Oshawa,” he said.

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